Incrementum AG (Liechtenstein) managing partner & fund manager · co-author of the annual In Gold We Trust report (since 2007) — running synthesis of appearances, with per-transcript breakdowns and a stock index.
A permanent 5% sleeve of his new 60/40; two Incrementum funds pair it with gold for the Sharpe-ratio benefit — "it works really well combining the both."
Where the higher-beta opportunity now lies — the GDM index at PE 13 vs the S&P's 28, 54% gross margin, and a net-cash sector "at its healthiest as I've ever seen it."
Being remonetized "not by decree but by function" along six reinforcing vectors — $8,900 is the new base case by 2030, with $15,000–$20,000 not ruled out on a US revaluation.
The 10% "performance gold" sleeve with the miners — and the proof the top isn't in: secular gold tops come with a gold/silver ratio of 15–20, nowhere near today's.
Raised as the champion of real-world-asset tokenization; he is unconvinced — cf. tokenized real estate and Van Gogh paintings, neither of which became a trend.
The mainstreaming signal for the institutional vector — its CIO now advocates a 60/20/20 portfolio with 20% gold. "That's not little Incrementum, that's Morgan Stanley."
The exception that proves the "corporate gold standard" case — Rob McEwen is one of the very few miners actually retaining bullion on the balance sheet.
Vector 6 in the flesh — now a significant physical buyer vaulting metal in the Swiss mountains, though tokenized gold "repackages, it doesn't replace."
Disclosed board seat, used as first-hand evidence that mining is "performance gold" — geology, permitting, ESG and management risk stacked on the metal.
"Definitely not a buyer of European debt at these levels and also not US debt" — financial repression and capital controls are the playbook; take fixed income in EM local currency and corporates instead.
In one line: Gold is being remonetized — "not by decree but by function" — along six mutually reinforcing vectors, which makes $8,900 the new base case by 2030 (with $15,000–$20,000 not ruled out on a US revaluation); we are in the middle of the public-participation phase, not the bubble, and the higher-beta opportunity from here is the miners, whose own price decks still assume $2,000–2,400 gold.
Six vectors, one loop. Reserves (central banks >1,000 t/yr for three years, plus repatriation) · private & institutional demand · silent balance-sheet recapitalization (the Bundesbank books its ~€400bn gold revaluation as quasi-equity) · anchoring (Judy Shelton's 50-year gold-convertible Treasury bond) · accumulation by the "gold-light" western holdouts (Canada, Australia, maybe Japan) · digitalization (Tether vaulting physical metal in Switzerland). "Those vectors are reinforcing each other" — the thesis strengthens non-linearly, and only accumulation hasn't fired yet.
2022 broke the model. The tight gold/real-yield correlation snapped when the G7 immobilized $350bn of Russian reserves. Every reserve holder now needs a monetary plan B that is liquid, neutral, un-inflatable and un-freezable — which is why central banks bought gold rather than euros, yen or francs. De-treasurization comes before de-dollarization; he is not a dollar-collapse maximalist, but a world splitting into "team USA" and "team China/Russia/Iran" needs a neutral settlement asset, and gold is the profiteer.
The demand gap is the fuel. Family offices hold 2–3% gold, pension funds under 2% — "not a hedge, that's actually pocket change." The buyer of the next leg is the $150tn+ fixed-income market: US inflation has run above target ~65 months and bonds no longer hedge equities, so the 60/40 needs a new diversifier. Morgan Stanley's CIO now floats 60/20/20 — "that's not little Incrementum."
The new 60/40. 14–18% safety gold (physical, safe jurisdiction, outside the banking system, never timed) + 10% performance gold (miners and silver, always timed) + 10% commodities + 5% Bitcoin + ~15% fixed income as a stabilizer — EM local-currency and corporate, "definitely not a buyer of European debt at these levels and also not US debt." Live outperformance vs the traditional 60/40: >25 percentage points over two years.
Cycle placement: Dow theory, second stage. Accumulation is behind us; we are in the middle of public participation (the cocktail-party answer is now "you should have 1–2% gold"). The parabolic distribution phase hasn't started because the two hard corroborators haven't fired: no crazy M&A yet (pristine balance sheets, huge free cash flow, conservative managements) and the gold/silver ratio is nowhere near the 15–20 that marked the last two secular tops. "We're in a bull market, not in a bubble yet — I think it could become a great bubble," and the real mania will be in the juniors.
The miners' hidden option. Company decks still model $2,000–2,400 gold, so every dollar above that is unpriced optionality. The aggregates back it: GDM index at PE 13 vs the S&P's 28, 54% gross margin, 56% EBITDA margin, a net-cash sector — "at its healthiest as I've ever seen it." Newmont ($7.3bn FCF, new all-time high), Agnico ($4.5bn) and Barrick (~$4bn) are the evidence; generalists always buy the most liquid name first. But the honest base rate stands — since 1971 physical gold beat mining stocks, so miners only pay if you time them.
Own the asset for what it spares you. Michael Weeks' framing (via Nassim Taleb's via negativa): gold's value "is not what it promises, but what it spares its owners" — no duration, credit or liquidity risk, no balance sheet to implode, no cash flows to dry up, no management misallocating capital, no counterparty goodwill required. "You just need a secure storage location."
What derails it. Fiscal policy genuinely reversing, conservative policy returning, and aggressive rate hikes — none of which he sees, because at current bond-market stress "we just cannot afford it anymore." Kevin Warsh, universally called a hawk, "so far, no, he isn't" — and is "actually trapped." The visible path instead is yield-curve control, financial repression and capital controls.
The product — Incrementum AG and the In Gold We Trust report
What it is: a boutique Liechtenstein asset and wealth manager (>$1bn AUM) whose public face is the free annual In Gold We Trust report, first published in 2007 and now in its 20th edition ("Back to the Monetary Future"). The research is entirely free — the business is the funds. Stöferle is managing partner and fund manager; unlike "people on YouTube or Twitter making bold forecasts for gold," Incrementum publishes a daily NAV, so the views are constrained by real risk management.
All of the below is grounded in what he says in the appearance archived here (2026-SEP-01).
Offering
What it is
How he runs it
Seen in the archive
In Gold We Trust report
The annual flagship — 480 pages this year, plus a compact version for those "not keen on reading such a brick of a report." Every previous edition is downloadable. Free.
Themed each year around one argument (2026: the remonetization of gold), built on a deliberately simple valuation model driven by monetary growth — "if we have a model let's keep it simple," because his ex-colleagues' PhD models "didn't really work in real time." Written to be readable: analogies (Back to the Future, the German tourist's sunbed, Everest base camp), humour and history rather than jargon.
The six vectors, the $8,900 base case and the Everest analogy throughout 2026-SEP-01; the free 480-page + compact editions named at 1:33:18
Guest chapters & interviews
Named outside voices carry parts of the report: an exclusive with Tether's head of special projects Juan Sartori on its physical-gold purchase programs; a new interview with Judy Shelton (also interviewed in 2017) on 50-year gold-convertible Treasury bonds; and "The Product Is the Solution" chapter on the corporate gold standard, developed with Chris Ritchie (Silvercrest).
He uses the chapters to start arguments rather than settle them — the corporate-gold-standard piece is "just a thought… a discussion that I wanted to start."
Sartori at 1:09:49; Shelton at 30:29; the corporate gold standard at 1:18:13
Monthly chartbooks & special publications
Ongoing free research between annual editions, published at ingoldwetrust.report alongside the archive of past reports.
Distribution is the funnel: free research, plus macro and charts posted on X as @RonStoeferle (with international sports and music thrown in).
Two funds that combine gold and Bitcoin in one vehicle — the "5% Bitcoin" leg of his new 60/40, offered to investors who want both without choosing sides.
Justified on statistics, not ideology: combining the two "gives you excellent risk numbers, excellent Sharpe ratios… I know that many people hate Bitcoin in the gold scene and many people hate gold in the Bitcoin scene."
An actively managed fund in the "performance gold" sleeve — mining equities, explicitly not a buy-and-hold product.
"Managing mining stocks I lost lots of hair over the last couple of years" — top-down metal risk plus geological, permitting, ESG, energy-cost and management risk, so positions are timed. Currently seeing "decent inflows" with clients "warming up to the idea… but they haven't really made the move yet."
The core research is free and complete. The full 480-page report, a compact version, every back edition and the monthly chartbooks cost nothing — a retail investor gets the same document the institutions read.
It hands over a whole allocation, not a tip. The "new 60/40" is a portfolio a private investor can actually implement (14–18% physical, 10% miners and silver, 10% commodities, 5% Bitcoin, ~15% bonds) with an explicit rationale for each sleeve.
It separates the two jobs gold does. The safety-gold / performance-gold distinction tells a retail holder which part to buy and forget and which part demands active management — the single most common mistake in the sector.
Accountability. He runs daily-priced funds against these views and says so, drawing an explicit line between that and unaccountable online forecasting.
Transcripts
One dated page per appearance — each has its full stock table, talking points, and the saved transcript. Newest first.