In short: Referenced only — held, no new view. Weight ~6.1%. Sheet: EPS 39.29 → 55.39 + 1.2% yield = 13.33%/yr.
In short: BUY (portfolio). ER 11.64%; fwd PE 11.0 vs 11.7 (6.0% under); RDCF 3.8% vs 9.8%. Fair value $653.4 vs $552.88. YTD +12.0%.
In short: ~6.0% of the book and the second-biggest cash generator: 202 shares producing $9,170.80 a year ($45.40 per share). Named among the four most attractively valued at 11x NTM P/E on a 13% EPS CAGR. One of only three holdings up over twelve months (+21%) and up 4% YTD. Modelled three-year return 13.33%.
Ameriprise is a large American wealth manager — advisers looking after client portfolios, earning fees on the assets. It is one of the four holdings named as most attractively valued, at 11 times next year's earnings against expected growth of 13%.
It is also the second-largest cash generator in the portfolio: 202 shares producing $9,170 a year, or $45.40 each. And it is one of only three positions that are up over the past twelve months, by 21%, in a book where most things have fallen.
Like Evolution and Zoetis, it is cheap and performing and not marked for an increase — which is the clearest evidence that this month's rebalancing is being driven by a judgement about business quality rather than by the valuation tables printed alongside it.
In short: BUY (portfolio). ER 11.64%; fwd PE 11.0 against an 11.7 average — only 6.0% under, so the cheapness is absolute rather than relative; RDCF 4.0% required vs 9.8% expected. Fair value $668.4 vs $565.53. The portfolio's best YTD performer at +14.5%.
In short: BUY, and the smallest discount to fair value in the book. Bought 12 Aug 2024; $524.4 against a $563.2 fair value — +7.4%, the narrowest gap of the nineteen. Forward PE 11.0 against an 11.7 five-year average — only 6.0% below, consistent with the July note that it "is trading right around its historical average Forward P/E." Expected return 13.33% on 12.13% EPS growth (EPS 39.29 → 55.39) plus a 1.2% yield.
In short: Held; volatility recast as a feature. Revenue from "financial advice and management fees, distribution fees, net investment income, and premiums." Moat: over-90% client retention, 10,000+ advisers and $1.2 trillion of assets giving "huge economies of scale," and a full-service offering creating "high switching costs." On price: "Since we bought Ameriprise, the price has been volatile… That's good news for a cannibal stock like Ameriprise. Management has had a lot of chances to keep reducing the share count." It "is trading right around its historical average Forward P/E," and the reverse DCF needs FCF growth of "just 2% per year in order to return 10% per year to shareholders."
Ameriprise looks after $1.2 trillion of clients' money through more than 10,000 financial advisers, and also sells retirement and protection insurance. Its advantage is human inertia: once someone has handed over their savings and explained their whole financial life to an adviser they trust, moving is a genuine ordeal. More than nine clients in ten stay each year, and the more products they hold — planning, investments, insurance — the harder leaving becomes.
The interesting argument in this update is about the share price rather than the business. Ameriprise spends much of its profit buying back its own shares — Slegers calls it a "cannibal stock," a company steadily eating its own share count so remaining owners hold a bigger slice. For a company like that, a falling share price is not bad news: the same money retires more shares. So the volatility since he bought it has been, in his words, "good news."
Notably he does not claim it is cheap on the multiple — it sits right at its own historical average. The case rests on the reverse DCF instead, which says Ameriprise needs to grow free cash flow by just 2% a year to deliver a 10% annual return. That is the lowest hurdle of the three names in this issue.
In short: BUY, Very Strong conviction. FV $591.3 vs $489.2 = 17.3% under; fwd PE 11.0 against 11.7 (6.0% under); RDCF 1.1% required against 9.8% expected. Nearly flat YTD (−0.9%) on a 18.9% ten-year CAGR — the steadiest of the holdings.
In short: Adding $10,000 — 22 shares at a limit price of $460. "A leading diversified financial services firm with $1.2 trillion in assets under management and administration. Wealth management is an incredibly sticky business. Once clients onboard and build a relationship with an advisor, they rarely leave, which creates high switching costs and a strong moat." Fee-driven, high margin and very low capital intensity, so "you get another capital-light business that generates tons of Free Cash Flow… It's a clear cannibal stock. Right now, the shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks) is over 8%."
Ameriprise is a wealth manager — a large network of financial advisers looking after $1.2 trillion of clients' money, charging a fee on the balances they oversee. The moat is human rather than technological: once someone has handed their retirement savings to an adviser they trust and told them everything about their family finances, moving elsewhere is a genuine ordeal, so clients rarely leave.
Because the revenue is fees rather than lending, and because the business needs very little capital of its own to operate, almost all the profit turns into spare cash. Ameriprise hands that back through dividends and by relentlessly buying its own shares — the pattern Slegers calls a "cannibal stock," a company steadily eating its own share count so that continuing owners end up with a bigger claim on the same profits. Between dividends and buybacks the shareholder yield is running above 8% a year.
He adds $10,000 here — half the size of the other two — twenty-two shares at a limit of $460.
In short: BUY, Very Strong conviction. FV $555.9 vs $454.7 = 18.2% under; fwd PE 11.0 against an 11.7 average — only 6.0% under, because this one never carried a high multiple to lose; the reverse DCF is the striking figure: 1.1% growth required against 9.8% expected, an 8.7pp margin. Bought with $50,000 on 28 June.
In short: Second of the three "boring quality stocks" cited for rising +2.2% in a week the Nasdaq fell 4.4%. A portfolio holding, so no separate case is made here.
In short: BUY, Very Strong conviction. EPS growth 9.8%, dividend 1.4%, FWD PE 11.0 against a fair exit 11.7, expected return 11.8%, fair value 563.2 against 466.0 = 17.3% undervalued.
In short: Listed Very Strong on the conviction slide; covered in Part I. No new view here.
In short: Very Strong conviction. A diversified financial services firm with $1.3trn in assets under management and administration. "It's the best performing stock within the S&P 500 Financials Index. Since its IPO in 2005, the stock doubled on average every 5 years." The expected-return arithmetic is spelled out: an 85% payout of capital against a 10% earnings yield gives 8.5%/yr in dividends and buybacks, plus 3-4% organic revenue growth and 6-7% earnings growth — "an expected return of 14.5%-15.5%."
Ameriprise is a wealth manager: a large network of financial advisers looking after $1.3 trillion of clients' money, plus an asset-management and insurance arm alongside it. It earns a fee on the balances it oversees, which makes revenue relatively predictable, and it has been the best-performing stock in the S&P 500's financial sector — doubling roughly every five years since it was spun out in 2005.
What makes this write-up worth reading is that Slegers shows his return calculation rather than asserting a target price. The company returns about 85% of its profits to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Since the shares are priced at an earnings yield of about 10% — meaning the company earns roughly a tenth of its own market value each year — that 85% payout hands shareholders about 8.5% a year in cash and share count reduction. Add 3-4% growth in revenue and 6-7% growth in earnings and you arrive at an expected return of roughly 14.5-15.5% a year. Every input is disclosed, so a reader can disagree with any one of them and redo the sum.
In short: BUY. The cheapest absolute multiple among the financials at 10.2x forward against an 11.7x five-year average (12.8% under), expected return 11.8%, and the sheet's most comfortable reverse DCF at +7.8pp (1.1% required against 8.9% expected).
In short: Disclosed holding, category "Where Rules and Humans Still Win": "The financial industry is heavily regulated and many investors will always want a person to help them make decisions." The moat is stated as a preference for a human counterparty, not as software.
In short: A ~6.4% weight and roughly +$11,500 unrealised — the fourth-best position and the only gainer outside the three named winners of any size. Disclosed by weight; rated Buy on the 5 February sheet, not individually discussed here.
In short: BUY, and a portfolio holding. The unusual row: at 11.6x forward against an 11.7x five-year average it is barely cheap on the multiple (0.9% under), yet the reverse DCF asks only 2.4% growth against 10.0% expected — a 7.6pp margin. Expected return 11.4%, five-year CAGR 20.9%, ten-year 18.7%.
In short: BUY. Weight 6.2%, performance +21.8% — the best-performing name that is not a Hold. "$1.2 trillion in assets under management and administration", growing AUM and launching products (the Signature Wealth Platform for advisers, HELOCs and checking accounts for clients). The framing is the archive's Cannibal label: "Ameriprise is a cannibal stock, so the most important thing is the buybacks… If we take a quarterly view, we see the trend is still steadily downward" (i.e. the share count). "Management expects to return about 85% of capital to shareholders through dividend and buybacks. In short, the investment case for Ameriprise remains intact." Valuation: 12.2x forward against an 11.9x five-year average — marked ✅ in the original despite being above it, the issue's one arithmetic slip — Earnings Growth Model 11.6% ✅, reverse DCF needing 4.4% against 10.3% expected ✅.
Ameriprise is a wealth manager: a large network of financial advisers overseeing $1.2 trillion of clients' money, earning a fee on the balances.
The growth story is deliberately dull — more assets under management, a new platform for advisers, home-equity lines and current accounts for clients — because that is not where the return comes from. Ameriprise is what this archive calls a Cannibal Stock: it returns about 85% of its profits to owners, mostly by buying back its own shares, so the share count falls quarter after quarter and each remaining share owns more of the company.
That means the thing to monitor is not revenue but the share count, and Slegers checks exactly that — "the trend is still steadily downward." At roughly 12 times earnings, with the price implying only 4.4% growth against about 10% expected, the machine has room to keep working.
In short: BUY — bought 12 August 2024, 6.15% of the portfolio, about +$15,000 of profit.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.