| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401K | 525 | $51.20 | $26,880 | 1.10% | $31.49 | $10,346 | +62.6% | — |
In short: Named with Suncor as the low-risk-tolerance choice for resource exposure.
Canadian Natural is Canada's largest oil and gas producer, with long-life oil sands and conventional oil and gas. It is one of the two names he suggests for low-risk investors: it is large and easy to trade, and pays a dividend, while still benefiting from the high oil prices and long commodity cycle he expects.
29:14So I think we're looking at a lot of opportunities for investors here and you want to have some of those names in your portfolio. So sit down with your investment advisor, discuss how much weighting you have in resources, what is appropriate given your age and risk tolerance, but have some exposure and if your risk tolerance is low then buy the Suncors and the CNQs and soes; if your risk tolerance is a little more then there's a lot of very very attractive
In short: Named in the lede alongside Suncor as a producer of "heavier crude that competes against Venezuelan resources," and again in the loser list with Cenovus and Imperial. The exposure is to the heavy-barrel differential, not to flat crude: new heavy supply widens the discount Canadian barrels sell at, "even before physical production grows" (Lambujon).
Canada's largest producer, and heavily weighted to the same long-life heavy barrels as Suncor. The threat here is not that Venezuela takes its customers tomorrow — the article is emphatic that no meaningful new production arrives for years — but that the market's expectation of future heavy supply widens the discount Canadian crude trades at well before a single new barrel ships.
The right way to hold this is as a bet on a spread rather than on oil. CNQ can be right about crude going higher (the Aug 26 thesis) and still earn less than expected, if the heavy-versus-light gap widens against it. When you own a producer of a discounted grade, you own two prices — the benchmark and the differential — and this deal only threatens the second one.
In short: Named first among the "big bets on Canadian oil producers" Goehring & Rozencwajg are making to play rising oil prices. The reason is reserve life, not price beta: "the Canadian oil sands will be able to sustain production longer than U.S. shale wells, which deplete quickly" (Goehring) — so if the call is that shale growth turns negative and OPEC loses its competition, the right asset is the one whose production is still there in year seven.
American shale wells produce a great deal of oil quickly and then fade fast — a well can lose most of its output in a couple of years, so the industry has to keep drilling just to stand still. Canadian oil sands are the opposite: enormous, slow, expensive-to-start projects that then produce at a steady rate for decades. Very little decline to fight.
Goehring and Rozencwajg expect U.S. shale growth to turn negative within months because companies stopped investing, leaving nothing to replace it worldwide. If that is right, oil trades above $100 for much of 2027 and stays strong for years. The stock you want for a multi-year price move is the one that will still be pumping the same barrels at the end of it — which is why they made Canadian producers, Canadian Natural first among them, their big bet.
Their track record earns the hearing: 14% a year since 2015 and 21% a year over five years, more than double the natural-resources index. They also say plainly that this year has gone badly — up 6.4% through July, having missed the refinery rally. So this is a call from managers currently behind, which is either the honest version of a contrarian position or a reason for caution, depending on your view.
In short: Sechan's other named Canadian holding — "I own Suncor, I own CNQ" — flagged by Wapner as up better than 50% year to date. Held inside an energy overweight run all year as an inflation-and-rates hedge on earnings momentum, high total yields and still-reasonable valuations, and explicitly not trimmed for having already worked.
Canadian Natural is the other Canadian producer Rob Sechan owns, also up more than 50% this year, held for exactly the same reasons as Suncor: earnings momentum, high total yields to shareholders, still-reasonable valuations, and its usefulness as protection against higher inflation and higher interest rates.
The thing to take from his side of the argument is the refusal to sell a winner just because it is a winner. Jenny Harrington's counter-case in the same segment is that the majors have risen only because crude rose; Sechan's position is that the earnings and cash returns are real, so a higher oil price is a reason the businesses are worth more, not a reason to fear the shares.
In short: "Canadian Natural Resources, a better company, big company, covers the length and breadth of the Canadian play." The large-cap, lower-work way to own the Canadian valuation discount.
Canadian Natural is the quality end of the same Canadian trade: "a better company, big company, covers the length and breadth of the Canadian play." Because it operates across essentially every Canadian basin and play type, owning it is close to owning Canadian oil and gas as an asset class.
That makes it the low-work way to take the Canadian political-risk discount: you accept less upside than the small caps he personally prefers, but you don't have to do company-by-company operational due diligence.
35:38particularly attractive. Are there names? Yeah, that's what I was — are there names? Sure. The big ones: Cenovus, not a great company, but stupidly cheap. Canadian Natural Resources, a better company, big company, covers the length and breadth of the Canadian play. Those are there.
In short: His April-2025 pick, +72% since — still "one of the best ways to play it" and his biggest energy weight. "No problem at the margin adding to a Canadian Natural Resources for sure." He's more excited about energy than banks from here.
CNQ is Canada's biggest oil and gas producer, and it was Aitken's top pick in April 2025 — up 72% since. He bought it back then on a simple rule: the sector was out of favour, oil was priced below its long-run trend, and the businesses were good. He openly said there was no catalyst — that's exactly when he wants to act.
He still likes it, and it carries his largest weight in energy. His forward view is that oil can stay "high for longer" (not necessarily going higher, just not collapsing back), and in that world these stocks still have room to run. He is, in his words, more excited about energy than about the banks from here — and would happily add to CNQ at the margin.
36:21So it's a go-to name for us. It's also an index heavyweight. I mean, we're not going off off the board there picking that name, but I think that it's perfectly fine and I'd have no problem at the margin adding to a Canadian Natural Resources for sure. — Your second idea, CN Rail, and I own that one too, I think, up 40%.
In short: "Basically almost a mutual fund of Canadian oil and gas production — one company, but they inhabit almost every play up there."
Canadian Natural is Rick's one-stop way to own Canadian oil and gas — "basically almost a mutual fund of Canadian oil and gas production." It's a single company, but it operates across nearly every major Canadian play, so buying it spreads your bet the way a fund would.
45:55Canadian Natural Resources, which is basically almost a mutual fund of Canadian oil and gas production. It's one company, but they inhabit almost every play up there. Freehold Royalty, which is probably my remaining favorite in Canada. Tormolene which I think is the best performer of the Canadian producers. Birchcliffe and PO, which are the two gas-centric players in Canada.
In short: Reference — one of the large Canadian names (with Suncor/Cenovus) that could become a supermajor if it scales to 2M bbl/d. More SAGD-focused among the majors. Not discussed as a holding.
27:06So as we look at that we're going to go to two maybe three super majors in Canada and we're going to have maybe three or four super majors in the US and the question is who? Okay. I think Cenovus or CNQ Suncor could be one of those. But they got to get to 2 million barrels and they got to get there to over time. And so how are we going to get there? I admittedly Imperial doesn't produce enough oil to get there today.
In short: Listed (as "CNRL") among Enbridge's customers he serves alongside Exxon and Cenovus. Customer reference.
30:58growing which doesn't mean I also don't serve Kico and Cenovus and CNRL and the rest right like so and I think we
31:06should be thinking about this in the same some things are going to take some time to adjust and normalize but does
In short: Held since 2014, Avenue's only oil name (personal holding, disclosed). A low-cost, efficient bellwether you "own and don't think about"; down 20% since March, but debated cuts and kept it — prefers it to Suncor.
Canadian Natural Resources is one of Canada's largest oil producers. Teich has owned it since 2014 and it's the only pure oil name in the portfolio — so when the stock ran up he thought about trimming, but cutting it would have shrunk his oil exposure to a token ~2%, too little. His view: it's a low-cost, highly efficient "bellwether" you buy and stop worrying about. It's down 20% since March, and he prefers it to rival Suncor because of that low-cost profile and its ability to make money across oil-price cycles.
35:35Yeah, it's a good question. So this is one that we've owned since 2014. And I think the challenge, we discussed this in January, February
35:43internally is, into that oil price spike shares were up and we debated, should we cut it in
In short: Loves the business (smart counter-cyclical acquirers, always on-time/on-budget) but trimmed into the run-up and wouldn't buy here — wants oil to reset lower first, then would add. "There's too much oil in the world."
CNQ is a large Canadian oil and gas producer he has owned and praises highly — it's run by people who make smart acquisitions when oil crashes (buying assets cheaply and integrating them well) and who deliver projects on time and on budget. "An incredibly well-run business."
But he trimmed his position after a big run-up and wouldn't buy at today's price — he expects oil to fall back to lower levels ("there's too much oil in the world"), and that dip is when he'd add more. So it's a great company on a "wait" — positive on the business, neutral on buying right now.
44:36So, uh, I I sold some of it when it ran up a lot. Like I had I I had about a 2 and a half% position. It went to almost six. I sold a percent of it uh when it ran up like that. Um, I think that um I wouldn't buy it here. uh not because I
44:51don't think it's a good company, but I think that the oil market has to settle and I think oil will probably go back to the levels it was before. I know people say, "Oh, blah blah blah," but it will. 45 minutesAnd so I think then then you may want to buy more of it there, right? What I think is very important about CNQ, this is a I always I always kind of find it
In short: "You never bet against Murray Edwards — you ride his coattails." Long-life, low-decline assets, a relentless operator compounding barrels in the ground, an incredible dividend. Down 12% from its March peak. "This is a forget-about story of compounding… you just own it."
CNQ is one of Canada's largest oil & gas producers, run by billionaire Murray Edwards. Larson's whole thesis is "you never bet against Murray Edwards — you ride his coattails." The company owns "long-life, low-decline" assets — reserves that keep producing for decades without falling off quickly — and the operator quietly keeps growing the barrels and reserves in the ground while paying a big dividend.
The stock is down 12% from its March peak because fast money rotated out of energy after the war scare faded, but Larson treats that as a chance to own a compounding machine: "he's compounding barrels in the ground, and long-term barrels are going to be more valuable." It's the "forget-about-it" core energy holding, not the exciting trade.
29:45It's down 12% from that peak in March. — What do you do with the CNQ? — You never bet against Murray Edwards. You ride his coattails. It is not the boring way to play energy. If you look kind of pre-COVID to now, like just the growth, and it's not the share price.
In short: Not owned. The generalist's default Canadian name (Murray Edwards is "daddy") — high quality, diversified, dominant liquidity, but not the highest-return producer. Will CNQ ever get a bid? Unlikely — it's more the buyer.
35:48And we've got a question. Um will CNQ ever get a bid? It doesn't seem that they get rewarded for great assets and great management. Yeah. I mean, I I think CNQ kind of fits into the traditional like high quality. If you're the generalist, you finally dip your toe into the Canadian space, you buy CNQ. You buy CNQ.
In short: Not owned. The easiest name to sell on tariff fear because it's the most indexed / most liquid. Found Imperial more attractive last summer (CNQ traded at a premium to Imperial). A return-to-normalcy in the majors.
55:10because of tariff concerns yeah I I would say that's true so like the people that wanted a lot of liquidity uh that are like I don't want to take the Tariff risk I can see that because it's the most likely to be indexed also okay um so you're thinking like a sector ETF kind of a world um is that the most attractive relative to the returns and the pricing no um so we're not doing anything on that I we found Imperial to be a lot more attractive but I think cnq was trading at a bigger premium relative to Imperial last summer for example and
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