| Account | Shares | Price | Value | % of acct | Cost/sh | Gain $ | Gain % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 401K | 9 | $1,995.00 | $17,955 | 0.73% | $1,939.98 | $495 | +2.8% | — |
| HSA | 3 | $2,006.58 | $6,020 | 5.58% | $1,653.67 | $1,059 | +21.3% | — |
| Total | 12 | $23,975 | 0.53% | $1,554 | +6.9% | — |
In short: BUY. ER 11.89%; fwd PE 36.3 vs 48.4 (25.0% under); RDCF −0.9% vs 15.0% (+15.9pp).
In short: Named twice, both times as Nu's principal threat rather than as an investment: "Competition from MercadoLibre: Mercado Pago (MercadoLibre's fintech arm) is a big threat, especially in Mexico," and in the conclusion "The main risk probably is the competition from MercadoLibre's FinTech segment." No figures and no view on MELI shares — though it is a mirror image of the April Shopping List case, where the fintech arm was part of the MELI bull thesis.
MercadoLibre runs Latin America's biggest online marketplace, and its payments arm, Mercado Pago, has turned into a digital wallet and lender used by tens of millions of people. That makes it Nubank's most direct competitor, especially in Mexico, where both are chasing customers who have never had a proper bank account.
The post names it as the single biggest risk to Nubank. It does not say anything about MercadoLibre as an investment — but the same newsletter pitched MercadoLibre as a candidate earlier in the year, partly because of that fintech arm. One company's threat is the other company's growth engine.
In short: Carlson analogy: the closest thing to a "next Amazon" — same playbook in a different context (fintech for an underbanked region), the standard a "next Palantir" label has to meet.
In short: BUY. ER 11.89% on 15.0% growth; fwd PE 36.3 against a 48.4 average (25.0% under); RDCF 8.7% required vs 15.0% expected. Fair value $2,469.5 vs $1,792.84. YTD −9.2%; ten-year CAGR 26.8%.
In short: One of the nine selective non-AI growth names attracting Q2 buyers. A disclosed author holding.
In short: Heyndrikx's largest position, and the exception to his own sizing rule. "The stock hasn't done much recently, but the business keeps executing, so I've kept adding, even though it's already my biggest position." The discipline behind it: rank by original allocation, cap at 8%, stretch to 10% occasionally — "and with MercadoLibre I'm even above that, which is very exceptional for me." The trigger to add is fundamental, explicitly not the price: "I add when I see a company doing well, and I mean fundamentally, not the stock price."
MercadoLibre is Latin America's combination of Amazon and PayPal: an online marketplace with a payments and lending business bolted onto it. The guest, Kris Heyndrikx, has kept buying more of it even though the share price has gone nowhere lately, because his test for adding is whether the business is doing well, not whether the stock is. That distinction is the whole point — a price that has stalled while the business keeps growing is, in his framework, a reason to add rather than to worry.
It is also his largest holding, and large enough to break his own rule. He measures position sizes by what he originally put in, not by what they are worth today, specifically so that a winner does not automatically look "too big" and a loser "too small". Measured that way he normally caps a position at about 8%, occasionally 10% — and MercadoLibre is above even that, which he calls "very exceptional".
In short: Brazil bet pays off. Q2 revenue +50% Y/Y to $10.2B (a $410M beat), its fastest growth in four years, with GAAP EPS $9.19 ($0.25 beat), GMV +44% to $21.9B (+36% FX-neutral) and Mercado Pago TPV crossing $100B for the first time, +56%. The free-shipping experiment worked: MercadoLibre lowered the minimum order value for free shipping to BRL 19 last year, deliberately subsidising low-value purchases to raise frequency — one year on, items per buyer are up 19% and conversion improved 1.1 points, with users active across both MercadoLibre and Mercado Pago +37%. Mercado Pago revenue +49% and the credit portfolio +75% to $16.4B, with card delinquencies near historical lows despite that growth. The trade-off is margin: operating margin was just 7%, roughly flat sequentially, and adjusted free cash flow only $214M after $2.1B of credit expansion and $441M of CapEx. Bottom Line: "Commerce, payments, and credit are all compounding faster, and the Brazil shipping investment is changing customer behavior. For now, management is trading margins for long-term growth a la Amazon." A disclosed author holding.
MercadoLibre is Latin America's Amazon and PayPal combined. Revenue rose 50% to $10.2 billion — its fastest in four years — and payment volume through Mercado Pago passed $100 billion in a quarter for the first time.
The most interesting thing here is a deliberate experiment with a measurable result. A year ago MercadoLibre lowered the order value at which shipping becomes free in Brazil to just 19 reais — roughly the price of a few household items. That means subsidising a lot of small orders. One year later, the number of items each buyer purchases is up 19% and the share of visits that turn into orders improved by 1.1 points. Cheap shipping on small baskets changed how often people shop, which is exactly what it was meant to do.
Lending is compounding alongside it: the credit book grew 75% to $16.4 billion, and — the part that matters in emerging-market lending — bad debts stayed near historic lows even at that growth rate.
The bill is margin. Operating profit was only 7% of revenue, and after $2.1 billion went into expanding credit and $441 million into infrastructure, free cash flow was just $214 million. The newsletter frames it as a conscious choice: trading today's margin for tomorrow's scale, "a la Amazon." The author owns it; analysis, not a recommendation.
In short: "Owned on and off for several years now. Very impressive LatAm growth story. Have a small exposure there."
Full passage: premium transcript (PDF).
In short: BUY. FV $2,424.2 vs $1,760.0 = 27.4% under; ER 11.9%; fwd PE 36.3 against 48.4 (25.0% under) — the highest absolute multiple on the list; RDCF 10.1% vs 15.0% expected. YTD −10.8%.
In short: BUY, ranked #1 among superinvestor buys four days earlier. FV $2,214.6 vs $1,607.8 = 27.4% under; ER 11.9%; fwd PE 36.3 against 48.4 (25.0% under) — still the highest absolute multiple on the Buy list; RDCF 13.1% vs 15.0%.
In short: Ranked #1 of the five heaviest superinvestor buys. "The Amazon and PayPal of Latin America" — one connected system that fixes the region's two biggest problems, delivery and safe payment, "in a region that's growing fast and where many people still don't have a bank account." Three legs: the marketplace take rate and shipping fees; Mercado Pago, which "has grown so big that it broke free from the shopping platform" and is now used by physical shops and small sellers; and Mercado Envíos, the owned logistics network that reached "delivery speeds no one can match in their main markets."
MercadoLibre runs the biggest online marketplace in Latin America, and around it has built a payment system, a delivery network and a lending arm. A seller lists on the marketplace, gets paid through Mercado Pago, ships through Mercado Envíos and borrows working capital from Mercado Crédito — four businesses, one customer, each making the others harder to leave.
The reason this is worth more in Latin America than the same idea would be worth elsewhere is that the region's two chronic problems are exactly the two the company solved: parcels that do not arrive, and payments that are not safe or not possible because a large share of people have no bank account. Solving them created the infrastructure, and the payments arm has now outgrown the shop it was built for — physical stores and small traders use it on its own.
In short: BUY, at the highest forward multiple on the list. EPS growth 15.0%, FWD PE 36.3 against a fair exit 25.0, expected return 11.9%, fair value 2,548.7 against 1,850.3 = 27.4% undervalued.
In short: "The Amazon of Latin America": 150 million active buyers in 18 countries, against a market where "85% of shopping still happens in physical stores." Two reinforcing engines — the marketplace (commissions plus shipping fees, with the Mercado Envios logistics network built for a region "where shipping is notoriously difficult") and Mercado Pago (payments, loans, cards, wallets, monthly active users +30% a year, loan book nearly doubled in 2025). Revenue grows "30% to 40% every year." Price: "currently trades near the lowest Forward P/E we've ever seen. But a Forward P/E of nearly 37x is still expensive"; target under 30x = $1,560 against $1,835.
MercadoLibre is Latin America's dominant online marketplace — think Amazon for the region — with 150 million active buyers across 18 countries. It takes a commission on what is sold and a fee for shipping it, and it built its own delivery network because the region's postal and courier services are unreliable.
Attached to it is a financial business, Mercado Pago, which handles payments and now also lends money, issues cards and runs digital wallets. In a region where a large share of people have no bank account, that is a second business growing about 30% a year, with the loan book nearly doubling last year.
The growth runway is a simple statistic: 85% of shopping in Latin America still happens in physical shops. Revenue grows 30-40% a year and there is a long way to go.
The block is price. Even at the lowest valuation in its history, it costs nearly 37 times next year's profits, which is judged still expensive. The stated buying level is under 30 times, about $1,560 against a market price of $1,835.
In short: Named only as Scottish Mortgage's third-largest position at 4.8%. No stance here — but note it was Best Buy material in the same month's April Best Buys, so the archive carries an argued view on it elsewhere.
In short: Best Buy #5. "The Amazon of Latin America" — commerce 56% of revenue, fintech 44%, with a self-reinforcing loop: "Shopping leads to Payments (Mercado Pago). Payments give MercadoLibre data to offer Credit (Mercado Credito). Credit gives customers more money to go back and Shop more." Its own logistics network (Mercado Envíos) is "nearly impossible for a competitor to replicate quickly," in a region where e-commerce is expected to grow 20%/yr through 2033. Down more than 35% on three things: shipping-cost cuts to fight Temu compressing margins, a $14bn 2026 investment plan investors wanted as profit instead, and fear that Latin American inflation causes defaults in the lending book. "For long term investors, the stock is currently trading at one of the lowest valuations we've ever seen."
MercadoLibre is the Amazon of Latin America, and increasingly its PayPal too. A little over half its revenue comes from taking a cut of everything bought and sold on its marketplace and from delivering the parcels through its own logistics network; the rest comes from Mercado Pago, its payments arm, which people across the region now use for groceries, fuel and bills as well as online shopping, plus lending and credit cards.
The pieces reinforce one another: shopping generates payments, payments generate data about who repays, that data lets it lend safely, and credit gives customers more to spend on the platform. Building its own delivery network in a region where shipping is genuinely hard is the part a rival cannot copy quickly, and e-commerce there is still so under-penetrated that the market is expected to grow 20% a year to 2033.
The stock is down more than 35% because the company chose growth over reported profit three times over: it slashed shipping prices to beat back Temu (more volume, thinner margins), announced a $14 billion investment plan for 2026 when investors wanted earnings, and is expanding lending quickly at a time when high inflation makes investors worry about defaults. For someone measuring in years rather than quarters, Slegers argues, that combination has produced one of the lowest valuations the company has ever traded at.
In short: BUY. 31.1x forward against a 48.4x five-year average (35.7% under), fair value $2,856 against $1,728.1, expected return 13.0% — and the best ten-year record on the sheet at a 31.2% CAGR. The reverse DCF is thin at +1.9pp: the price demands 13.1% growth.
In short: Write-up #3. "The Amazon of Latin America" plus Mercado Pago. "Just like Amazon, MercadoLibre has a moat built on network effects and logistics infrastructure… Sellers stay because that's where the customers are. Buyers stay because that's where the best selection is." The regional twist: "their shipping network and digital payment system build a moat of convenience. That's powerful in a region where shipping and payments have always been a nightmare." NSZ Capital 1.4%, Guardcap 0.1%.
MercadoLibre is Latin America's dominant online marketplace, and Mercado Pago is the payments and credit business built on top of it. It earns commissions on goods sold and fees and interest on the money moving through the payment system.
The marketplace has the same buyer-seller loop as any large platform — sellers go where the customers are, buyers go where the selection is. What makes it harder to attack in this particular region is the physical and financial plumbing it built itself: its own delivery network and its own payment rails, in markets where shipping and payments "have always been a nightmare." A rival needs both, not just a website.
In short: BUY. 40.4x forward — the second-highest multiple on the Buy list — against a 48.4x average (16.5% under), an 11.2% expected return on 15.0% growth, and a $2,568.1 fair value against $2,075.01. The reverse DCF is exactly balanced (15.2% required against 15.0% expected). A 35.9% ten-year CAGR; it becomes Best Buy #1 in April.
In short: Valuation/playbook benchmark — went through the same margin-inflection transition a decade after Amazon; trades ~3× sales vs CPNG's ~1×, illustrating how cheap Coupang is at a comparable stage. A peer-set comparison, not a call on MELI.
In short: #1 pick for 2026 — the crowd's favourite, and still not endorsed. The growth claim is quoted from the CEO: Marcos Galperin on X — "MercadoLibre is the only public company in the world (out of +83.000 public companies) to grow more than 22 consecutive quarters in a row at a yearly rate greater than 30%. Currently we have done this for 27 consecutive quarters." The mechanism named is vertical integration: Commerce 56.8% of revenue (including its own Mercado Envíos logistics) and Fintech 43.2% via Mercado Pago, so "if you pay through Mercado Pago, the company earns yet another fee." Table: 43.6x forward on a 7.9% net margin and 8.4% ROIC — no valuation comment offered, consistent with the "obviously not cheap" verdict three days earlier.
In short: #2 most-picked; +14.1% — and the one name in the top three that is not endorsed. The growth record is extraordinary: "the only public company to grow its revenue for more than 22 consecutive quarters at +30%." The price is the objection: "Yet the stock was 'only' up about 13% last year. In other words, MercadoLibre became cheaper last year. Today, MercadoLibre trades at about 40.2x forward earnings. This is obviously not cheap but it could be justified if MercadoLibre keeps growing at attractive rates." A conditional, not a recommendation.
MercadoLibre is Latin America's Amazon and PayPal in one company: an online marketplace plus a payments arm, Mercado Pago, that takes another fee on the same transaction.
The growth record is genuinely without peer — more than 22 straight quarters of revenue growing over 30% a year — and the shares rose only about 14% in 2025, which mechanically makes them cheaper than they were.
And Slegers still does not buy them. At about 40 times next year's earnings his verdict is a conditional: "obviously not cheap, but it could be justified if MercadoLibre keeps growing at attractive rates." That is worth reading carefully, because it is the whole discipline in one sentence — the business passes and the price does not, and no amount of quality is allowed to substitute for the second test.
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Verbatim excerpts from the public transcripts (auto-pulled at each mention's timestamp, lightly cleaned). Timestamps link into the video; "source page" opens that commentator's full analysis at this row. Click a mention's header line to expand it (one open at a time). For personal study — not investment advice.