Jeffrey Gundlach — research hub

DoubleLine CEO ("the Bond King") — macro-driven asset allocation across rates, inflation, credit, the dollar, gold/commodities and equities, with a running synthesis and per-appearance breakdowns.

Sections: stock index · overall thesis · the product · appearances. Last updated 2026-SEP-16.

Stock & name index

▲ Positive

Ticker	Name	Current thesis	Research	Seen in	Total $k
DBLTX	DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund (I share)	15% of his model portfolio — the safe half of the fixed-income barbell: DoubleLine Total Return holds no corporate bonds, “let alone AI bonds,” for extremely high credit quality with a decent yield.	SA · FA	2026-SEP-16	—
DCMT	DoubleLine Commodity Strategy ETF	10% of his model portfolio: DoubleLine’s rules-based, monthly-rebalanced commodity ETF, +38% YTD — real-asset protection against the energy/inflation shock he expects.	QT · SA · STK	2026-SEP-16	—
DCRE	DoubleLine Commercial Real Estate ETF	Half his 20% “dry powder” in place of cash: top-of-the-capital-structure commercial real estate debt, duration ~2, yielding ~6% — “a lot better than buying a T-bill.”	QT · SA · STK	2026-SEP-16	—
DFLEX	DoubleLine Flexible Income Fund (I share)	The other 10% of dry powder: DoubleLine Flexible Income (“my favorite fund to manage”), beating both cash and the Agg over 1/3/5/10 years; the portfolio blends to ~6.25% yield at duration 2.	SA · FA	2026-SEP-16	—
DFVE	DoubleLine Fortune 500 Equal Weight ETF	His entire equity sleeve (30% of the Gundlach Unlocked portfolio, cut from 40%): an equal-weighted, revenue-ranked Fortune 500 index — “you don’t have 40% of your portfolio in AI. You have almost nothing.”	QT · SA · STK	2026-SEP-16	—
EEM	Emerging-market equities (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF — asset-class proxy)	S&P has lagged MSCI EM ~20% since end-2024 and Gundlach expects more — the relative line tracks the trade-weighted dollar, which he sees falling (asset-class call; EEM as proxy).	QT · SA · STK	2026-SEP-10	2.1
EMLC	EM local-currency debt (VanEck J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF — asset-class proxy)	15% of his model portfolio — the risky end of the fixed-income barbell: EM local-currency debt yields 7%+ and gains as the dollar falls; the best-performing traditional bond sector (asset-class call; EMLC as proxy).	QT · SA · STK	2026-SEP-16 · 2026-SEP-16 · 2026-SEP-10	—
GLD	Gold (SPDR Gold Shares — asset-class proxy)	Permanent gold sleeve sized against price — 25% a year ago, cut to 5% above $5,000, back to 10% of his model portfolio at ~$4,300; a weakening dollar pushes central banks from fiat into gold (asset-class call; GLD as proxy).	QT · SA · STK	2026-SEP-16 · 2026-SEP-10	—
Non-US equities	Foreign / rest-of-world equities (MSCI World ex-US)	US vs ex-US peaked two years ago and trends lower (MSCI P/B 5.72 vs 2.49) — foreign equities make sense longer term, though near term he is “coming close to home” on the risk set-up and Sep–Oct seasonals.	—	2026-SEP-10	—
RSP	Equal-weight S&P 500 (Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF — index proxy)	Recommended and now liked “even better” (post-FOMC, 2026-SEP-16): equal weight has outperformed as AI stocks and AI bonds lag, and it strips out an AI sector at ~40% of the index — the concentration where past manias hit “lights out.”	QT · SA · STK	2026-SEP-16 · 2026-SEP-10	—
Securitized credit	Short-duration (2–7 year) high-tier securitized credit	His core bond call: the 2–7-year part of the curve in higher-tier securitized credit rather than corporates — +2% this year vs the Bloomberg Agg −1.5%, one of the Agg’s worst years in 50.	—	2026-SEP-16	—
Short-term TIPS	Short-maturity Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities	“The ones that protect you from inflation are 5 years and in” — with DoubleLine’s model putting CPI above 4% through March, short TIPS are the inflation hedge that works (long TIPS aren’t).	—	2026-SEP-16 · 2026-SEP-10	—

► Neutral / referenced

Ticker	Name	Current thesis	Research	Seen in	Total $k
BKLN	Bank loans / leveraged loans (Invesco Senior Loan ETF — asset-class proxy)	Splitting, now out of his model portfolio: higher-rated loans +4% but CCC loans −5–6% and AI-linked loans 130bp off the tights; a Fed hike squeezes floating-rate borrowers (was Positive at ~7% yield on 2026-SEP-10; asset-class proxy).	QT · SA · STK	2026-SEP-16 · 2026-SEP-10	—
COST	Costco Wholesale	Inflation anecdote, not a stock call: Costco doubled the price of Kirkland motor oil and is rationing it against hoarding — to Gundlach the late-’70s buy-before-it-rises psychology behind the inventory build lifting GDPNow.	QT · SA · STK · FA	2026-SEP-16	—
Crude oil	Crude oil (WTI / Brent — commodity)	An inflation shock, not a trade: WTI $106, the SPR near the floor below which it can’t be drawn, record-low global inventories, $8 diesel ($9.99 in California) and Costco rationing motor oil — “I don’t see this energy price shock going away.”	—	2026-SEP-16 · 2026-SEP-16 · 2026-SEP-10	—

▼ Negative

Ticker	Name	Current thesis	Research	Seen in	Total $k
AI corporate bonds	AI-sector corporate credit (investment grade & high yield)	Decompose the market: non-AI junk and loans sit near their tights while AI junk is +50bp and AI loans +130bp; hyperscaler deals rejected within days (+75 bid +200) — the bond market flagging where the losers of the AI race sit.	—	2026-SEP-16 · 2026-SEP-16 · 2026-SEP-10	—
AI equities	AI / hyperscaler equity complex	Out “starting last week”: losers in the AI race for the holy grail will lead the next significant drawdown in risk assets, and the narrative has flipped from utopia to “AI is going to kill us all” — stay out of the epicenter.	—	2026-SEP-16 · 2026-SEP-16	—
Anthropic	Anthropic (private)	Grouped with OpenAI as an opaque private mega-cap that won’t open its books — emblematic of the private-market obfuscation and IPO-wave / private-credit over-concentration he warns on.	—	2026-JUN-12	—
BTC	Bitcoin	Cited as a speculation thermometer, not a holding: tracked the software-sector ETF tick-for-tick and rolled over with it into spring 2026 — risk appetite cooling, per Gundlach (DoubleLine), 2026-JUN-12.	STK	2026-JUN-12	—
CCC bank loans	CCC-rated leveraged loans	The weakest bond sector (−5–6% total return): low-quality floating-rate borrowers “playing beat the clock” for a cutting cycle that has “zero probability” of starting — and a hike adds pressure.	—	2026-SEP-16	—
Long-term TIPS	30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities	No hedge against rising rates — 30-year TIPS and nominal yields both rose ~500bp in lockstep over six years, so TIPS “went down just as much as the nominals”; use 5-years-and-in instead.	—	2026-SEP-16 · 2026-SEP-10	—
OpenAI	OpenAI (private)	Part of the ~$280B private-issuance wave sapping liquidity; refused to show its books to a would-be lender — which to Gundlach hints the numbers are being “dressed up” to propel a higher IPO price.	—	2026-JUN-12	—
ORCL	Oracle (bonds)	Bond-market tell: Oracle’s new bonds widened “tremendously right after” issuance — the market saying the rating doesn’t make sense for heavy AI borrowers (a credit comment, not a stock call).	QT · SA · STK · FA	2026-SEP-16	—
PE-owned life insurers	Private-equity/private-credit-owned life insurers & annuity writers	PE-owned life/annuity writers stuffed with sponsor private credit and reinsured offshore on thinner reserves “may fail” — buy life insurance or annuities only from mutual companies owned by their policyholders.	—	2026-SEP-16	—
Private credit	Private credit funds / BDC-style lenders	Reported performance “was a lie,” ratings are shopped across 7–8 agencies (one 25-person shop rated 3,200 deals), DOJ is investigating — “private credit is the fuse and the insurance companies are the bomb.”	—	2026-SEP-16	—
SPCX	SpaceX (bonds)	The rating the bond market rejects: SpaceX debt rated BBB- (a grade he suspects was “persuaded”) trades ~three notches lower, and its “quarter of global GDP” TAM “just doesn’t work” — the face of the mega-IPO/AI borrowing wave.	QT · SA · STK · FA	2026-SEP-16 · 2026-JUN-12	—
SPY	Cap-weighted S&P 500 (index proxy)	Recommends no cap-weighted S&P: every CAPE reading ≥35 has meant negative 10-year real returns (CAPE now 42, typically −5%/yr), valuations rising even as Treasury yields climb; his equities sit 30% in equal weight instead.	QT · SA · STK	2026-SEP-16 · 2026-SEP-16 · 2026-SEP-10	—
TLT	Long-term Treasuries (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF — asset-class proxy)	Not a buyer of the long end at 5⅓%: wants a real-yield cushion (2% on SEP-16 La Roche, “at least 300bp” post-FOMC) — would buy the 30-year “aggressively” at ~6½%, though Treasury buybacks/yield-curve control may cap yields first (asset-class call; TLT as proxy).	QT · SA · STK · FA	2026-SEP-16 · 2026-SEP-16 · 2026-SEP-10	—

Overall thesis

In one line: Macro-driven asset allocation for "higher rates and persistent inflation" — avoid long-term developed-market government bonds until a 2% real yield (and long TIPS, which don't hedge them), expect a Fed that follows the 2-year with inflation running hotter than consensus, and — as of SEP-16 — hold zero AI: a ~6.25%-yield / duration-2 model portfolio of equal-weight Fortune 500 equities (30%), a no-corporates Total Return + EM local-debt barbell, gold + commodities, and high-quality carry instead of cash, while private credit, PE-owned insurers and mis-rated AI credit are "the fuse and the bomb."

Rates — long end is a no-touch. The 30-year Treasury broke above the ±2σ band that held 1990–2023 (Jun) and by September sat at 5.24% — a ~500bp rise that "didn't retrace hardly at all" — a continuation signal. Social Security insolvency ("2029 or 2030," not the official 2032), $40T debt heading to $50T by 2032 and deficits of 7–8% of GDP within a decade only deepen the supply problem. By SEP-16: debt quoted at $41T, Bessent's $6B "Operation Twist" is "one day of the deficit," and he won't extend duration until a 2% real yield — ~6% with inflation near 4% (post-FOMC framed as a 300bp real premium — buy the 30-year "aggressively" at 6½%, but expects yield-curve control first); the endgame is debasement and/or restructuring (longer maturities, lower coupons).
The Fed follows the 2-year Treasury — and the JPM prices-paid/employment scatter puts today's reading in the historical hike zone. In June: no cuts in 2026, he'd bet on a hike. By September the 2-year says funds should be ~50bp higher and WIRP priced ~60% for a hike — but he leans no hike because "there's something about Kevin Warsh that I don't quite fully trust," and a skipped hike means long rates "rise fairly significantly." On SEP-16 he flipped to calling a 25bp hike: WIRP ~88% (the Fed has always followed WIRP above 70), the 2-year 100bp over funds ("says hike 50"), and Warsh opened Jackson Hole with hiking anecdotes. After the Fed delivered 25 (SEP-16 post-FOMC, CNBC) he said he'd have dissented for a 50bp "stun and done": the 2-year rose again on the decision, "virtually no chance" of one-and-done, he'd hike in October, and the SEP's 3.7 → 2.3 PCE path implies more than two more hikes.
Inflation hotter than consensus. His "unfettered" import/export price indices averaged ~6.5% in June and ~7% in September (exports 8.25%, imports 5.95%); PCE 3.7% with the 6-month rate re-accelerating; the 1966–82 overlay tracks eerily; electricity +50% in 8 years; Brent near $100 with the SPR at 287M bbl (a refill floors oil). SEP-16: DoubleLine's model has CPI starting with a 4 and staying there through March; WTI $106, the SPR near its physical floor, $8 diesel, Costco rationing motor oil. Post-FOMC: import/export average 7.8%, core PCE 3.3% off a 2.6 floor, and GDPNow's lift is inventory hoarding (Costco doubling then rationing Kirkland motor oil); expects the October CPI with a 4 handle.
DoubleLine's 10-year model (7-yr nominal-GDP average + German 10y, R² 0.93) read 4.53% = spot in June and 4.71% vs 4.78% spot in September — fair, but with the path of least resistance higher; by SEP-16 it said the 10-year was ~20bp too high — not enough to override the 2%-real buy rule.
Credit is splitting on AI. BDC/private-credit marks cracking (one big BDC 100 → 77 in five months, Jun); by September AI-sector spreads had blown out (IG 50 → 125bp, HY 180 → 325bp) while ex-AI credit sat at its tights — an issuance avalanche on top of Treasury borrowing. SEP-16: AI junk +50bp / AI loans +130bp off the tights, CCC loans −5–6%, and the market rejecting agency ratings (SpaceX BBB- ~three notches wide, Oracle wide after issue). Rating-shopping across small agencies makes private credit "the fuse" and PE-owned life insurers "the bomb" — buy annuities only from mutuals. Post-FOMC he re-cut it by grade: AI IG +50bp vs ex-AI 70 → 78bp; AI high yield +150bp vs ex-AI flat — he prefers 2–7-year higher-tier securitized credit (+2% YTD vs the Agg −1.5%).
Cap-weighted US equities: recommends none. Shiller CAPE 42 — historically −5% to −9% real a year for the next decade; tech 38% of the S&P ("as many bargains as a hotel minibar"); a mega-IPO wave (SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic) as a top signal. Equal weight has begun outperforming as the AI complex decouples from the rest of the market.
Allocate abroad — and into yield. US price/book 5.7 vs RoW 2.5 → the rest of the world and EM over the US (equities and EM local-currency debt), tied to a dollar he expects to keep falling; gold "part of every portfolio"; short-term TIPS "too cheap"; bank loans ~7%. Near term (Sep) he is "coming close to home" on the risk set-up and September–October seasonals.
The Gundlach Unlocked model portfolio (SEP-16) — zero AI. Equities 40% → 30%, all in DFVE (equal-weight Fortune 500); fixed income 15% DBLTX (no corporates) + 15% EM local currency; real assets 10% gold (back from 5%) + 10% DCMT; "dry powder" 10% DCRE + 10% DFLEX instead of cash — ~6.25% yield at duration 2, a Sherman ratio that stays positive through +200bp. Out of AI equities "starting last week"; "we've crossed over to the hard side of the street for the next 6 to 9 months."

The product

Grounded in what Gundlach states on the archived webcasts (2026-JUN-12, 2026-SEP-10) and his 2026-SEP-16 interview (Julia La Roche Show).

What it is: Gundlach Unlocked is a free DoubleLine webcast/podcast (this is episode 2; the first ran at the start of the year) hosted by DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach. He created it expressly because audiences on his fund-specific podcasts kept asking "what funds of yours do you recommend I buy?" — so each episode walks a macro environment and translates it into an asset allocation across DoubleLine's own mutual funds and ETFs (00:06–00:35). The macro view is the sales funnel: a top-down case for rates, inflation, the dollar, EM/RoW and commodities that maps to which DoubleLine products to hold.

Segment	What it is	How he runs it	Seen in the index
The webcast itself	A free, slide-driven macro webcast/podcast (~32–47 min) released roughly quarterly (episode 2 in June, episode 3 in September 2026).	Walks a deck of yield, inflation, fiscal, equity-valuation/concentration and credit charts, then frames the asset-allocation takeaways for retail. Episode 3 opened with the prior quarter's market recap and closed on the seasonals "informing the recommendations I'm about to go into" — the uploaded video ends before that segment.	The 2026-JUN-12 and 2026-SEP-10 episodes.
Macro asset-allocation thesis	The recurring through-line: avoid long govvies, expect higher-for-longer/persistent inflation, tilt to RoW/EM and a falling dollar, keep commodities.	Each chart funnels to an explicit "I will be recommending that investors position for…" call (e.g. EM & RoW over the US, 2026-JUN-12).	Talking points + "In plain English" on the dated page.
DoubleLine funds & ETFs	The firm's mutual funds and ETFs that the allocation points buyers toward.	The webcast exists to answer "which funds do I buy?" — the macro view tells you which DoubleLine sleeves fit (rates duration to avoid, EM debt to favor, commodities to hold).	On 2026-SEP-10 he says many DoubleLine funds now yield ~6%. On 2026-SEP-16 (Julia La Roche Show) he laid out the current model portfolio by product: DFVE, DBLTX, DCMT, DCRE and DFLEX alongside gold and EM local debt.
Quarterly model portfolio	A four-bucket allocation (equities · fixed income · real assets · "dry powder") published each quarter on Gundlach Unlocked.	Built from sectors or DoubleLine funds/ETFs — "sometimes we'll use things that aren't DoubleLine" — and judged on yield ÷ duration (the "Sherman ratio"); he explains it created the show because fund-specific podcasts can't make forward-looking statements (2026-SEP-16).	DFVE, DBLTX, EMLC, GLD, DCMT, DCRE, DFLEX rows on 2026-SEP-16.

How it serves retail investors

Free and macro-first. No paywall — a retail investor gets the same top-down framework Gundlach uses, then a clear allocation conclusion rather than a stock tip.
Translates a deck into a portfolio stance. Each exhibit ends in an actionable tilt (avoid long bonds, favor EM/RoW, hold commodities) that a retail allocator can apply to their own mix.
Routes to DoubleLine products. By design it answers the "which of your funds should I buy?" question — so the served outcome is a DoubleLine fund/ETF allocation consistent with the macro view.

Appearances

One dated page per appearance — each has its stock/name table, talking points, and the saved transcript. Newest first.

Date	Title / analysis page	Show	Watch	Transcript	Actionable insights
2026-SEP-16	Fed Needed a "Stun and Done" 50bp Hike (post-FOMC)	CNBC with Scott Wapner (DoubleLine upload)	▶ YouTube	transcript	actionable insights
2026-SEP-16	We've Crossed to the Hard Side of the Street	The Julia La Roche Show	▶ YouTube	transcript	actionable insights
2026-SEP-10	Gundlach Unlocked: The Fed's Next Move	DoubleLine — Gundlach Unlocked (ep. 3)	▶ YouTube	transcript	actionable insights
2026-JUN-12	Gundlach Unlocked: Positioning for Higher Rates and Persistent Inflation	DoubleLine — Gundlach Unlocked (ep. 2)	▶ YouTube	transcript	actionable insights

To process — backlog

Appearances not yet processed — newest first. None queued yet.