Chief Investment Officer at Avenue Investment Management (Toronto) — a macro-aware value manager; running synthesis of his interviews, with per-transcript breakdowns and a stock index.
Alimentation Couche-Tard — held for years (personal holding); 7-Eleven overhang gone, now driving organic in-store/merchandise growth, prudent debt-funded M&A paid down, buybacks + heavy family ownership.
AutoZone — held since 2020; resilient consumer staple proxy for car age (~13 yrs) & stable miles driven, flat-to-shrinking store supply, prolific buybacks, zero acquisitions. ~30% drawdown = multiple compression, attractive entry.
Canadian Natural Resources — held since 2014, Avenue's only oil name; a low-cost, efficient bellwether you own and don't overthink. Down 20% since March; prefers it over Suncor.
Medpace Holdings — held ~1 yr; the 'toll booth on pharma R&D' running clinical-trial sites — high-FCF, high-margin, low-capital, buys back stock aggressively. Results track VC-funding cycles; AI likely a net positive via more R&D.
National Bank of Canada — Avenue's biggest bank position; consistently the highest-ROE Canadian bank, cleaned up legacy oil & gas, strong Quebec franchise + Canadian Western/Laurentian deals. Deserves its premium multiple (~17x).
Royal Bank of Canada — held 22 years (since 2004); the 'crown multiple' bank — avoided acquisition missteps, strong core banking/wealth/capital-markets. Always expensive; owned as a durable core.
South Bow — held; Keystone liquids pipeline spun from TC Energy. Pure-play, funds its dividend from cash flow (sustainable) with low capex needs. Prairie/Keystone-XL growth a 'nice-to-have' — view hinges on how any expansion is funded.
Accenture — not owned; closest comp to Reuters, at risk as clients cut consulting budgets and use AI to need fewer consultants. Pricing power gone; high-margin but multiple pressure.
Boston Scientific — not owned; dominant medtech hit by Watchman-product issues. Growth moderating post-COVID surgery surge → multiple compression; 'too hard for us' bucket.
Casey's General Stores — the 'parabolic' best-in-class US convenience/gas experience, used as the bar Couche-Tard is chasing on in-store merchandising. Referenced, not owned.
Caterpillar — 'we could own Caterpillar,' but Teich prefers the dealer (Toromont) for resilience; CAT/John Deere equipment is on every North American construction and data-center build site.
Carrefour — the French grocer Couche-Tard earlier tried and abandoned buying; cited as the pattern of large M&A attempts rebuffed by host countries. Referenced.
GE HealthCare — not owned; down on margins & order growth. Dominant device franchise but slowing growth → de-rating risk; 'too hard' bucket alongside the medtech peers.
General Mills — cited alongside Nike as a consumer name under pressure; illustrates the 'discretionary hurt vs essentials supported' K-shaped split. Illustrative reference.
Intuit — not owned, most interesting of the beaten-up software names; 80% gross margins, near-zero capital needs. At ~10–11x earnings 'completely mispriced' if profitability holds — fair only if AI truly disrupts QuickBooks/Mailchimp/tax.
Nike — cited as a discretionary-consumer name hurt in the K-shaped economy when fiscal support flows to essentials, not discretionary. Illustrative reference.
O'Reilly Automotive — AutoZone's main competitor; 'a great stock, a great business.' Part of the flat-supply, resilient auto-parts retail theme. Referenced, not owned.
Stantec — not owned; the WSP peer Teich favors at the outset for better returns on capital. Same fiscal tailwind and AI overhang; both need the next big infrastructure push to move again.
Suncor Energy — not owned; new CEO (Rich Kruger) did a great job, benefited from refining crack-spread blowout. 'Would have been nice to own,' but Teich prefers CNQ's low-cost profile; buying here = buying a parabolic.
Seven & i Holdings (7-Eleven) — the failed Couche-Tard takeover target; the deal would have required a huge equity/debt raise Teich dislikes. Its removal cleared Couche-Tard's overhang. Referenced.
Stryker — referenced as a dominant, high-touch medtech franchise; same post-COVID growth-moderation / multiple-compression dynamic as the group. Not owned.
Thomson Reuters — not owned, actively looking; stable legal/tax/accounting software but priced 'bulletproof.' Multiple must reset as AI and lost pricing power bite; strong FCF/buybacks make sub-10x too cheap.
WSP Global — not owned, on the watch list; engineering/construction consult firm, a fiscal-spend beneficiary down ~30% on AI fears. Was expensive, recent debt-funded acquisition — needs a fresh fiscal push to re-rate.
Enbridge — not owned; a textbook case of why EBITDA misleads — doesn't live within cash flow (capex ~$10B > depreciation ~$5B), >$100B debt, dilutive equity, ~5% ROC vs ~5% debt cost. Great asset, poor equity-holder economics.
In one line: A macro-aware value manager who buys durable, consistent businesses that fund their own growth from cash flow — positioned for the global government-spending boom ("bigger than AI"), underweight the AI trade, and deeply skeptical of debt/equity-funded growth and of EBITDA.
Follow the fiscal impulse. The US, Canada and Europe are all spending — "the dominant story," and "the new ZIRP." He tilts to the durable beneficiaries (industrials, essential consumer, chips/defense) and filters fiscal-inflated earnings out of the "real" number.
Rank top-quartile quality per sector, own the best two or three. Not the index at big weights — concentrated quality (banks: National Bank biggest position + Royal Bank, 22 yrs).
Only own businesses that live within their cash flow. Avoids names that must issue debt or equity to grow; gets skeptical "whenever a company has to raise equity." South Bow and Medpace pass; Enbridge fails — "a textbook example of why EBITDA is a bad number" (capex > depreciation, dividend > free cash, >$100B debt).
Buy multiple compression in unbroken compounders. Quality down ~30% on a de-rating (not falling earnings) + relentless buybacks = opportunity — pro pick AutoZone; watching beaten-up software (Intuit "completely mispriced" at ~10–11x if AI doesn't disrupt, Thomson Reuters, Accenture).
Own the dealer / toll-booth, not the volatile principal. Pro pick Toromont (the Caterpillar dealer, + AVL's AI-datacenter power modules) over CAT; Medpace as the toll booth on pharma R&D; Couche-Tard for family ownership + buybacks (7-Eleven overhang gone).
Essential over discretionary in a K-shaped economy; favour cycle-independent demand with flat/shrinking supply ("doing the same thing in 10 years").
Trim cyclicals after a parabola. Cut gold positions in half into the Jan/Feb parabolic move + sentiment phase-shift, keeping a core long-term weight. Canadian Natural Resources is the one oil name (held since 2014), preferred over Suncor.
The debt endgame is the risk. US interest expense now exceeds defense or Medicare; long-end rates at generational highs — the fiscal boom continues only while governments keep borrowing cheaply.
Transcripts
One dated page per appearance — each has its talking points and the saved transcript. Newest first.
Bryden Teich appearances discovered via search (Bryden Teich Avenue Investment), not yet processed — verify publish dates & channels, newest first. Limited to the last ~2 years. None queued yet.