| Ticker | Name | Current thesis | Research | Seen in | Total $k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple | Positive on 2026-SEP-15 on a product cycle, after being only his survivorship-bias exhibit on 2026-SEP-03. Tim Cook "was a supply chain god" who re-rated the stock toward a consumer staple at ~30x, but Android has had foldables since 2019 and Apple still ships "a beta version of AI." New CEO John Ternus is "a product guy," and "I think we're going to see a massive upgrade cycle to the Duo phones, which is their foldable phone. It's about 50% bigger surface area than the Pro Max… a huge upgrade cycle next year in Apple." On 2026-SEP-04 he credited luck over strategy for the AI decision: "Hey, Google, you go spend the $200 billion. We'll license it from you for a couple of billion" — Gemini inside the iPhone without the cash burn. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-15 · 2026-SEP-04 · 2026-SEP-03 | — |
| Anthropic | Anthropic (private) | One of his two AI survivors (with Google), because it went enterprise from day one — "because corporations will pay." The revenue has caught up with the thesis: run rate now "about 65 billion… and OpenAI is right around 40," the reverse of two years ago, after turning profitable in Q2. Two qualifiers keep it from a clean endorsement: the model layer is commoditizing ("you don't need a Ferrari to go to the corner store to get milk," so ~90% of requests go to cheap open-weight models), and its CEO's 2026-SEP-15 safety warning has a commercial angle — a lab in the lead gains from regulation that chokes off open weight: "if you can give yourself a monopoly, wouldn't you?" | — | 2026-SEP-15 · 2026-SEP-04 · 2026-SEP-03 · 2026-AUG-04 · 2026-JUL-31 | — |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems | Now a live long, not just the 2000 analogue. Liked in May 2025 and up 86% since, he still likes it on 2026-SEP-15: if owning your data matters, enterprises build their own AI infrastructure and "you're going to need to upgrade your networks," and scattered data centers must be wired together — "Cisco is obviously the networking king" — at "a reasonable valuation… positive cash flow… high margins." The history still frames his AI caution: Cisco was "the Nvidia of its day" at over 100x earnings, only recently regained its 2000 market cap, and guided "30 to 50% sustainably" before two down years — why he distrusts any company's long-term forecasts. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-15 · 2026-SEP-04 · 2026-SEP-03 | — |
| GOOGL | Alphabet (Google) | One of his two AI survivors (with Anthropic) and the template for his current Meta call. The edge is data — "over 10 products with over a billion users each… we give Google the data to train on" — plus free distribution: AI folded into search squeezes OpenAI on the consumer side. It passed his acceleration-plus-margin test in the June quarter ("revenue growth accelerated 19% and the margins expanded by 3%"), and its written-off-then-cleared history (antitrust ruling "basically a slap on the wrist," stock doubled) is the pattern he now sees in Meta. On 2026-SEP-15: "I like Google right now. I like Meta more." The caveat is cash — "I don't like the fact that Google went cash flow negative," and he never expected to see it "having to issue equity or debt." | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-15 · 2026-SEP-04 · 2026-SEP-03 · 2026-AUG-04 · 2026-JUL-31 | — |
| META | Meta Platforms | Top pick #2 on 2026-SEP-15, behind only cash — Google a year ago, replayed. The clearing event: "Meta also settled their social media lawsuit." The fix: Zuckerberg paid to catch up (Alexander Wang), and Muse Spark 1.3 "did really well," with open-weight versions coming and "Watermelon," a frontier-class model, "due at the latest in October." The new monetisation path for capex that had none: "they have an API… and they have their agent, which if that's a big hit, you have three and a half billion people that it can be distributed over." And the price: mid-teens calendar-27 PE vs peers in the low 20s — "I love stocks that people hate… the multiple is low gives me a margin of safety." Earlier it was his social-media winner-take-most exhibit. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-15 · 2026-SEP-03 | 3.0 |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | Preferred over Celestica on the gross-margin value-add test: "Marvell is in a different bucket where they've got obviously very high gross margins. They're helping some of the best companies in the world to turn out ASICs like Google… I think Marvell's much more interesting than a Celestica." The same custom-chip work is the source of the tension he flags between Nvidia and its biggest customers. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-15 | — |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | The chip name that passes his risk-versus-reward screen: "they forecasted 70% revenue growth for calendar 27 and you're paying right now a 14 times PE" against the S&P at ~18x and the public clouds in the low 20s — "not paying an outlandish valuation for the guy with the best chips on the planet" and "this isn't Cisco in 2000." It is also "pushing very hard in the open-source, open-weight model category," the side he expects to take ~90% of AI requests. Risks he names: customer concentration as hyperscalers build their own ASICs (Marvell's business), the new multi-year guidance, and CDS pricing wide of the IG average. "Deserves a place in people's portfolio"; no price target is ever given. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-15 · 2026-SEP-04 · 2026-SEP-03 · 2026-JUL-31 | — |
| Ticker | Name | Current thesis | Research | Seen in | Total $k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon | Downgraded to neutral on 2026-SEP-15 by time frame, not by business. Near term: negative free cash flow "bothers me a lot," and "if oil goes to 120 bucks, Amazon has a consumer business… Amazon will struggle," with oil high "at least through the midterms." Longer term "Amazon's very interesting": robotics is "the next big wave… and Amazon is ridiculously good in that," making the asset-heavy logistics core far more efficient. AWS passed his acceleration-plus-margin test in the June quarter, and Amazon remains his e-commerce winner-take-most exhibit. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-15 · 2026-SEP-04 · 2026-SEP-03 · 2026-AUG-04 · 2026-JUL-31 | — |
| Citadel | Citadel (private) | Named only as the buyer that cleared the overhang — "situational awareness being pushed into that for sale with Citadel helped solve some of those issues." No view on the firm. | — | 2026-SEP-03 | — |
| CRM | Salesforce | Evidence, not a call. Its 20%+ jump on the Anthropic deal is one of the prints that "marked the bottom in software to some degree," and billing is shifting to "usage based per token as well as outcome-based." On 2026-SEP-15 the host floated rotating from semis into Salesforce, ServiceNow and Thomson Reuters; his answer overrode the idea at the market level — "between now and midterms, I'm very negative on the market overall, which means I don't want to be involved in anything." | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-15 · 2026-SEP-03 | 2.9 |
| CXMT | ChangXin Memory Technologies (China DRAM) | The concrete China-memory threat, given as fact rather than opinion: China's state-backed DRAM maker has gone public, plans to lift wafer starts "from 300,000 to 500,000 by the end of next year," and holds "about 8% of the global DRAM market which is nothing, but it is ramping incredibly fast." Quality is closing too — it has produced high-bandwidth memory "yielding very very well… only a generation behind." If China simply meets its own published targets, the "shortages through 2030" consensus has "very minimal chance." | — | 2026-SEP-04 · 2026-SEP-03 | — |
| FIG | Figma | Cited only as the cautionary case study behind his data-governance rule, with no view on the stock — Anthropic "was on the board of Figma… they stepped off the board. And then like a week later, they launched a competing product," so companies "know they have to keep their data proprietary." The generalisable screen: a supplier with a board seat or your data may become your competitor. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-AUG-04 | — |
| GME | GameStop | History, not a view: paired with Volkswagen's 2008 squeeze as proof that "stocks go up way more than you ever imagined possible" — "recently we had GameStop, right?… But they can also go down way more than you ever imagined possible as well." The reason he won't call the AI top. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-04 | — |
| IBM | IBM | On his buy-and-hold casualty list, cited purely as history: "IBM was a buy and hold, of market share leaders that then went into trouble." Part of the denominator that the survivorship-bias argument depends on. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-03 | — |
| INTC | Intel | Two roles, both explanatory rather than a recommendation. On 2026-JUL-31 it was the live proof that the AI constraint had rotated — "the bottlenecks have switched. You've got CPU bottlenecks now which is why you've seen Intel up over 200% versus an Nvidia that's up like 20% or so" — with the warning that "the bottlenecks are going to keep switching." On 2026-SEP-03 it is the historical template for his China-memory call: Intel "at one point had 75% market share in the DRAM industry… by the early 1980s, Intel was facing bankruptcy and they switched to this thing called microprocessors and Japan took over the DRAM market." A dominant incumbent can lose a commodity market to a subsidised latecomer inside a decade. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-03 · 2026-JUL-31 | — |
| MSFT | Microsoft | Moved to neutral on 2026-SEP-15: a May-2025 pick up only 12% since, on which he declines to take a side — "pretty much any stock you mention, I've probably been long and or short… When the facts change, I change," and today "I'm just a lot more nervous and that just cuts across to most stocks." The business case is intact: Azure accelerated to 43% with margins up a point, it is one of the routing platforms that owns the customer as models commoditize, and it is his one genuine multi-decade compounder. It is also a neocloud customer that can drop rented capacity first, and a name on the hyperscaler CDS chart he checks every morning. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-15 · 2026-SEP-04 · 2026-SEP-03 · 2026-AUG-04 | — |
| NFLX | Netflix | The streaming winner-take-most exhibit, used twice (2026-SEP-03, 2026-SEP-15) to argue AI will not support many frontier winners: "What about streaming? Well, you really only have one, and that's Netflix. So, do you think you're going to have five plus models that everybody uses? I don't think so." Also one of the businesses that only existed because the dot-com bust left behind cheap bandwidth, the pattern he expects cheap AI tokens to repeat. No stock view. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-15 · 2026-SEP-03 | 4.4 |
| NOK | Nokia | The losing half of his best-known ex-ante-indistinguishable pairing, used only as history: "Nokia was a buy and hold"; "you don't know if you're holding the next Apple or you're holding the next Nokia." The point is position sizing under uncertainty, not a view on the stock. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-03 | — |
| NOW | ServiceNow | Named by the host in the 2026-SEP-15 "SaaS apocalypse bucket" rotation idea (sell semis, buy Salesforce, ServiceNow, Thomson Reuters). Niles did not rate it; his answer was market-wide — "between now and midterms, I'm very negative on the market overall, which means I don't want to be involved in anything." | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-15 | 17 |
| Silver Lake | Silver Lake (private equity) | Referenced as the diligence signal behind the Workday bid, not as a view on the firm: a private-equity buyer at "like 50 billion" must underwrite terminal value 7–10 years out while servicing debt at 2007-high long yields, so "the bars they have to cross… is much higher than a regular equity investor who can get in and get out in a day." | — | 2026-SEP-03 | — |
| Situational Awareness | Situational Awareness (hedge fund, private) | The forced seller whose liquidation dated the summer low. His diagnosis is mechanical, not fundamental: "they were running it at 4x leverage… if you have a 25% drawdown, but you have 4x leverage on it, then you're down 100%." Because fundamentals held, the sale to Citadel was risk-reducing and "the market obviously ripped the next day." On 2026-SEP-15 it dates the drawdown he treats as a warning shot: "the semiconductor index went down 29% from the end of June roughly to the bottom when Situational Awareness got taken out… in the space of a month" — and that trigger was milder than today's data-center pushouts. | — | 2026-SEP-15 · 2026-SEP-04 · 2026-SEP-03 | — |
| SNAP | Snap | The loser side of his third unknowable pairing, used to argue for downside protection: "You don't know if you're owning Snapchat or you own Facebook. You don't know. And the losses you can incur can be really steep." No view on the business. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-03 | — |
| SpaceX | SpaceX (private) | Frames the issuance question (the mention is the host's, 2026-SEP-03, while still private): "there's been a lot of talk in the wake of SpaceX that the market just can't absorb all this supply. Anthropic is coming, OpenAI is coming." Niles' answer is about the cost of money rather than SpaceX — "credit is the lifeblood of the economy… the 30-year is up at the highest level since 2007, that's a problem." His post-IPO view is under SPCX. | — | 2026-SEP-03 | — |
| TEAM | Atlassian | The counter-example to the software-disruption bear case, referenced with no stock view: "the Atlassian results, which was supposed to be one of the names getting disrupted. The stock was up 35% the next day." Part of the evidence that the disruption fear ran ahead of the facts, alongside software up ~4% YTD against a semiconductor index up over 60%. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-03 | — |
| TRI | Thomson Reuters | Named by the host in the 2026-SEP-15 software-rebound basket alongside Salesforce and ServiceNow; no Niles view on the stock, whose answer was to stay out of the market until the midterms. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-15 | 0.6 |
| TSLA | Tesla | A relative preference, not a recommendation: "I've both owned Tesla at certain points and I've been short Tesla, and so I'm a bigger fan of that company on a relative basis [than SpaceX] because the valuation is less. I think they have a good play on robotics." Cash flow and "some of those other things you still have to be concerned about." | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-15 | — |
| Volkswagen | Volkswagen AG (XETRA: VOW3) | History, not a view: "I remember Volkswagen quadrupling in two days during the global financial crisis because of a short squeeze and becoming the most valuable company in the world" — his humility exhibit for why nobody knows where a peak is. | — | 2026-SEP-04 | — |
| WDAY | Workday | A "system of record" name — one of his three structurally safe software spaces — and the more informative of his two software datapoints because of the buyer: "Silver Lake was looking to acquire them… if private equity is looking to acquire a company… they've got to typically hold these companies 7 to 10 years… and they have to believe that there's some terminal value." At "like 50 billion" with 30-year treasuries at 2007 highs, the diligence bar is far above a public shareholder's — "and so I thought that marked the bottom in software to some degree." | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-03 | — |
| Yangtze Memory | Yangtze Memory (YMTC, China NAND) | The NAND half of the China memory threat — YMTC "is going to go public very soon" and "plan to be bigger than Samsung or SK Hynix in the NAND business by the end of next year." The stated target is itself the signal: a state-backed entrant declaring share above the incumbents is the same behaviour Japan showed in the 1980s and Korea in the 1990s, and on both occasions the incumbents were driven out rather than merely squeezed. | — | 2026-SEP-04 · 2026-SEP-03 | — |
| Ticker | Name | Current thesis | Research | Seen in | Total $k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | Broadcom | A next-day reaction call, not a long-term verdict: on 2026-SEP-04, taped as the print hit, "Broadcom, which reported after the close, but the numbers were nowhere near what people thought they would be. And so that stock's going to go down probably tomorrow, unless something is changing on the conference call." Offered as evidence for the bears' data-center pause case, which is why he prefers cash into the midterms. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-04 | — |
| CLS | Celestica | Fails his value-add test: "In general, I don't like EMS companies, and you can look at the value add any company has by looking at the gross margins." Margins have expanded from roughly 2% to 10% — "good expansion but still relatively low… in the grand scheme of things" — so an assembler of AI hardware has little cushion if capex growth slows. Marvell preferred. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-15 | — |
| CRWV | CoreWeave | Turned negative on 2026-SEP-15. Asked whether to pull back "on semis, pull back on like the CoreWeaves of the world": "Yeah, you should have been pulling back a few weeks ago," once Texas and Pennsylvania paused data-center connections. As a neocloud it is "overflow capacity… when this bubble breaks, they're going to get destroyed" — the first capacity a hyperscaler cancels in a slowdown, debt-funded and without cash flow ("cash is king. Everything else is an opinion"). It was already on his morning credit-default-swap chart as the kind of borrower where financing strain shows first. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-15 · 2026-SEP-03 | — |
| DIS | Disney | The companion cautionary tale to Nike, aimed at the heirloom-stock instinct: "People were like, 'Oh, you've got to put it away for your grandkids.' Well, that hasn't worked out so well." Cultural durability mistaken for financial durability; no thesis on the business is offered. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-03 | — |
| NBIS | Nebius Group | His clearest AI avoid: "I don't like the neoclouds at all because when this bubble breaks, they're going to get destroyed. They are in my mind overflow capacity." If spending or model advancement slows, "the neoclouds are going to be the first ones to feel that pain," because their customers are the platforms themselves — "if you're Microsoft, are you going to say, 'I don't need that neocloud capacity anymore.'" Debt-funded and not generating cash ("cash is king. Everything else is an opinion"), so it fails his risk-versus-reward screen even though the stocks "can absolutely scream higher." | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-15 | — |
| NKE | Nike | His own live losing position, volunteered as the honest test of his anti-buy-and-hold rule — "one of my big disasters this year, we'll see how the rest of the year plays out, is Nike." The diagnosis is cumulative and unglamorous: "It used to be a market share leader. I don't think the oil situation has helped it. Obviously other brands have come in. They had years of mismanagement." Past dominance and a low price are not a thesis. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-03 | — |
| OpenAI | OpenAI (private) | The lab "that potentially has the most issues." It bet on consumers, and "only 5% of those consumers actually pay… because we're all used to getting things for free from Google," so it is "stuck between those two guys. Anthropic on enterprise, Google on consumer." The numbers have turned: Anthropic's run rate (~$65B) now exceeds OpenAI's (~$40B) and Anthropic turned profitable while OpenAI lost more. It also matters beyond itself — "a lot of roads lead to OpenAI" in the circular financing — and on the base rate, "just because ChatGPT is what started all this doesn't mean that OpenAI is going to be ultimately the biggest winner." | — | 2026-SEP-15 · 2026-SEP-04 · 2026-SEP-03 · 2026-AUG-04 · 2026-JUL-31 | — |
| Samsung | Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930) | Negative on 2026-SEP-04 on the same memory-margin call as SK Hynix — ~80% operating margins are "not normal" and revert "below the average" once China's CXMT and YMTC ramp. Earlier, same two roles as SK Hynix — half of the Korean memory pair whose collapse wiped out leveraged retail accounts, and the NAND share leader China's YMTC says it will pass by the end of next year. The historical rhyme is the point: Korea took memory from Japan in the 1990s with state support after Japan took it from the US in the 1980s, and Niles thinks the script is now running a third time with Korea in Japan's old role. | — | 2026-SEP-04 · 2026-SEP-03 | — |
| SK Hynix | SK Hynix (KRX: 000660) | Negative on 2026-SEP-04 as the earnings-bubble exhibit: "having memory companies having operating margins of 80% is not normal and trust me I firmly believe that once China ramps, gets to their ambitions in the memory markets, those margins will go back to below the average." Earlier (2026-SEP-03) on the receiving end twice. It is half of the Korean memory pair whose implosion "absolutely destroyed" retail investors who had bought on margin and then leveraged ETFs on top of that margin — his concrete argument against personal leverage. And it is the incumbent YMTC has publicly targeted passing in NAND "by the end of next year." Memory valuations only look cheap on the assumption the industry is no longer cyclical, which a subsidised entrant is precisely what undoes. | — | 2026-SEP-04 · 2026-SEP-03 | — |
| SNOW | Snowflake | Avoid on a rule, not on the numbers. He grants the bull case — agents will use products like Snowflake, and product revenue has accelerated three quarters running — but "I sort of have a cardinal rule of I don't want to fight the hard battles. Snowflake doesn't fit into any of those three buckets within software that I feel comfortable about" (security, system of record/database, video games). With OpenAI + Anthropic run-rate revenue up from $29B to ~$105B this year and "CFOs don't want to miss their quarters," "that spend has got to come from somewhere and some of that has got to be software." | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-15 | — |
| SPCX | SpaceX | Avoid despite the admiration: Elon Musk is "the Leonardo da Vinci of our generation," but judged on "valuation, cash flow, I don't like long-term forecasts… it's very hard for me to say, 'Hey, I want to be in SpaceX.'" The deciding factor is cash burn — "because they are spending so much money to try to catch up in AI, I just hate the cash flow part of it" — and Musk's forecasts "always seem to get there, but… in a longer time frame than what we all expect." Asked on 2026-SEP-15 whether to buy the dip (IPO priced at $135, trading ~$150); prefers Tesla on a relative basis. | QT · SA · STK · FA | 2026-SEP-15 | — |
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