Investing & Markets · 189
bookInvestment Wisdom for Our Friends and Loved Ones — Jenny Harrington & Rebecca Patterson (eds.)23 contributors each write a chapter of the investment advice they'd give a smart non-professional friend; helps readers find whether they lean growth, value, fundamental or technical, and ends with a reading list. Out Nov 17, 2026; authors' profits go to the Council for Economic Education and Boys & Girls Clubs.
bookPioneering Portfolio Management — David Swensen (introduction by Charles Ellis)Harrington quotes Ellis's intro, 'Avoid a few disasters and compounding will take care of the rest', as her reason to focus on the downside in dividend investing.
documentFidelity weekly market heat map dashboard — Jurrien Timmer (Fidelity)A weekly dashboard of forward EPS growth, margins, Fear & Greed, AI token prices, H100/A100 lease rates, Oracle CDS, oil, credit spreads and Fed hike odds; 'if you go and follow Timmer, he updates this every week.'
documentWhat if you fired Warren Buffett in 1999 — Jochen Vandenbergh (Compounding Quality)Compounding Quality report on why holding through a style drawdown matters: Buffett badly lagged the 1999 market before being vindicated.
documentKenneth R. French Data Library (Dartmouth) — Kenneth R. French, Tuck School of Business at DartmouthFree factor and portfolio return data back to 1963. Weniger uses it to show that companies issuing equity during expansions fall 80-90% in bear markets ('68-70, '73-74, GFC).
documentMemo of advice for young investment managers (RV Capital) — Rob VinallHis ~15-year-old memo on how he set up RV Capital, lessons learned and traps to avoid; the reason so many young managers contact him and the origin of his annual meeting.
bookThe Intelligent Investor — Benjamin GrahamVinall's revelation after the dot-com crash: Graham's chapter on post-1929 stocks trading below net cash described exactly what he was seeing in 2001-02.
bookThe Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life — Alice SchroederVinall quotes its account of Buffett hiring Ajit Jain because 'I just liked the guy' as the root of his manager-first investing.
documentLooking Under the Hood of ETFs — Harley BassmanHis Convexity Maven commentary on ETF leverage, return of capital and liquidity risks (free at convexitymaven.com).
bookMarket Wizards — Jack SchwagerCited by host Erik Townsend as the kind of trader knowledge AI could absorb.
documentThe mortgage convexity beast (Convexity Maven commentary) — Harley BassmanHis commentary on MBS becoming negatively convex again after recouponing (title as described on air).
videoCNBC sit-down interview with Invitation Homes CEO Dallas Tanner — Diana Olick, CNBCA 30-minute interview Auerbach recommends; Tanner rarely does media and speaks candidly about single-family rental.
podcastHypernormal Times (daily email) — Jeremy McKeownDaily email covering the major themes in the news; Polomny: "Definitely worth subscribing to his work."
videoREIT TV (channel) — David Auerbach / Hoya CapitalVideo channel on REITs, aimed at education.
podcastThe REIT Beat (newsletter) — David Auerbach / Hoya CapitalDaily REIT-industry headlines newsletter.
documentColossus write-up on Meta — ColossusLong-form Meta profile Carlson quotes: Meta wins whether AI commoditizes or not, Zuckerberg's history of pivoting through every platform transition, and the MSL rebuild.
podcastOdd Lots — Bloomberg (Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway)Cited for a Martin Wolf episode on why Nixon ended gold convertibility rather than devalue after Vietnam and the Great Society.
podcastThe Convexity Maven — Harley BassmanBassman's commentary on rates, volatility and convexity; he also created the MOVE index. Cited on the MBS yield trade-off.
documentWorld Nuclear Investment Guide — World Nuclear AssociationFinance Summit guide built by 30-40 fuel-cycle and financial contributors on how to finance nuclear builds.
document3Q Update on Equities and Bonds — Morgan StanleyCirculated with the SSR call alongside MS's non-AI top-picks list.
bookCapital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle — Edward ChancellorCase studies of capital cycles: high returns attract supply until margins mean-revert. Davolos's lens on royalties vs producers and on semiconductor margins.
documentA Model of Passive That Breaks the Market — Michael Green, with co-authors Hari Christian and Stefan Sturm (names as spoken)Green's March paper modeling how passive growth distorts markets; its Grossman-Stiglitz extension makes market makers' best strategy hunting informed active traders.
bookFoundation trilogy — Isaac AsimovPremise: one person's actions can't be predicted, but mathematics can predict many people's - Eisman calls it the premise of all modern loan underwriting (one loan is dangerous, many are predictable).
podcastFS Insider — Financial SenseFinancial Sense's interview podcast, cited for the week's energy discussion and an Ed Yardeni interview on the boomer-wealth buffer.
documentHow Competitive Is the Stock Market? — Valentin Haddad (UCLA)Links rising market inelasticity to the growing passive share of ownership.
courseHow to Analyze Banks (two-part masterclass) — Steve Eisman / The Real Eisman Playbook (premium)Premium masterclass on how banks work and how to think about large-, mid- and small-cap banks and the investment banks; part one Sep 16, part two two weeks later.
documentSharpening the Arithmetic of Active Management — Lasse Heje Pedersen (AQR, 2016)Shows passive funds must trade at index reconstitutions, overturning Sharpe's 1991 'passive equals active before fees' arithmetic.
bookThe Intelligent Investor — Benjamin GrahamCited as the source of his leverage rule of thumb (debt-to-equity at most 50%, interest coverage at least 5x).
bookTrillions — Robin WigglesworthHis history of index funds and ETFs — the background to his surprise that fixed-income ETFs improved bond liquidity.
bookWhy Gold? Why Now? — E.B. TuckerTucker's own gold book, which he calls easy to read, written when gold was around $1,200.
documentNu Holdings Deep Dive (90 pages) — Steven Van Der Burg (Compounding Quality community Partner)The subscriber deep dive behind the Sep 2026 Nubank investment case; downloadable from the post.
documentTD report on the H&R REIT / GO Residential break-up — TD SecuritiesTardif directs viewers to it explicitly — "TD has written a great report on this" — as the independent analysis of whether the take-under undervalues H&R and how the founder participates in the deal.
documentCompounding Quality whole-business acquisition model — Pieter SlegersA downloadable model that values buying a company outright: an Assumptions tab (market return, acquisition-debt rate and share, growth, tax, holding period, keep-vs-paydown debt strategy, plus an explicit stress scenario — shock year, earnings multiplier, post-shock refi rate) and a Summary tab reporting the outcome on both an EBITDA and a P/E framing. Must be downloaded to Excel before the formulas work.
podcastGold Newsletter — Brien LundinSubscription resource-sector research letter with a model portfolio behind it; ~40 years running. Explicitly bottom-up rather than thematic.
podcastMike's Market Memo — Mike Santoli (CNBC)Santoli's weekly markets newsletter, formally launched 2026-SEP-08; packages his long-running markets column plus extra data items and observations, publishing Tuesday mornings. Free to subscribe.
talkNew Orleans Investment Conference — Brien Lundin (host)Annual event, 28-31 October 2026. Deliberately no house theme - speakers chosen for well-reasoned arguments including ones the host disagrees with, plus an exhibit hall of juniors through producers.
bookNo Worries — Jared DillianHis earlier personal-finance book, referenced as the predecessor to The Awesome Portfolio - 'No Worries was an airport book, so I'm hoping this is an airport book.'
bookSuper Investors — Jared DillianHis next book, due 2027, flagged as the place he will take up discipline and the ability to admit you are wrong: 'this would be a good discussion for my next book, Super Investors.'
documentWarren Buffett's complete shareholder letters and public transcripts — Warren Buffett / Berkshire HathawayRead end to end (5,012 pages) alongside Adam Mead's Berkshire history and Prem Watsa's Fairfax letters — 7,121 pages in total — as the research base for the 'buy the whole business' thesis.
documentEye on the Market — Michael Cembalest, J.P. Morgan Asset ManagementThe institutional macro letter Singh circulates to SSR subscribers alongside his own deck (the September 1 2026 edition is saved with the 2026-SEP-07 call). This issue: an online war tracker, the evolution of S&P 500 estimates, the Treasury intervention, hyperscaler debt issuance, healthcare "pricing in a lot of bad news," the Korean market and the nuclear/SMR renaissance.
documentFactSet Earnings Insight — John Butters, FactSetThe weekly earnings-data blog Nathan cites for the anomaly that analyst estimates ROSE through the first two months of each of the last two quarters — "you usually see it the exact opposite way."
bookFinancial Shenanigans — Howard SchilitThe 1990s accounting-forensics classic Cameron Dawson keeps on the shelf behind her. Walks the income statement, the cash flow statement and the balance sheet in turn, showing the most aggressive treatment available on each; Zeigler credits it with teaching him to read a filing for where pressure is being applied.
bookIan Cassel's micro-cap stock-picker book — Ian CasselRecommended alongside 100 Baggers as the counter to buy-and-hold-forever: giant holdings built from micro caps, but with an explicit sell discipline. Title not stated on air.
bookJust Keep Buying — Nick MaggiulliCited by the host as a lifetime-investing framework; Dillian credits Maggiulli's linear optimization of the optimal risk-efficient portfolio, which lands on the Awesome Portfolio ex-cash.
bookThe Wealth Ladder — Nick MaggiulliThe companion book the host raises: how the setup has to change at each wealth level to keep moving up.
bookDon Durrett's book on analyzing gold and silver mining stocks — Don Durrett~300-page textbook, 12th edition, on how to analyze mining stocks; includes chapters on ETFs and physical metal. Recommended as the starting point for anyone who doesn't yet own miners.
courseGoldStockData.com — Don DurrettResearch database and search engine covering ~870 gold and silver miners; meant for people who already own mining stocks and want to find more.
videoLow-Hanging Fruit — Don Durrett (YouTube)30-minute video: two-minute overviews of 15 mining stocks that are 15-baggers at $7,000 gold, split into easy paths and ones with milestones to hit.
bookThe Preparation — Doug Casey & Matt SmithWhat a young person should do from 18 to 22 instead of college to become a self-reliant Renaissance man.
documentBabylonian Talmud, Bava Metzia 42a — the thirds rule for dividing wealth"A person should divide his money into three: one-third in land, one-third in business, and one-third kept in his possession." Cited as a second source, alongside Browne, for the design of the AIA Permanent Portfolio and specifically for the land sleeve.
documentCisco Systems earnings release — bookings growth from +70% to -30% — Cisco Systems (investor relations)Niles' recommended antidote to 'smart people are spending for a reason': pull the primary document from the last cycle, where the CEO reports going from 70% year-over-year bookings growth to negative 30% within months. (He dates it 'May of 2021, if memory serves me correctly' — he means the 2001 release.)
documentIdea Brunch interview with Scott Osheroff, CIO, AFC Uzbekistan Fund — Scott OsheroffThe source Polomny quotes for the Uzbekistan thesis — the disinflation-to-currency-stability-to-deposits-to-bonds-to-equities chain, and the AFC Fund's own caveat that the Tashkent UCI index's constituents are undisclosed.
podcastMacro Dirt — Jared Dillian & Tony GreerHis co-hosted markets podcast, where he aired the financials-topping and JPM-short calls a couple of weeks before this appearance.
podcastThe Contrarian Capitalist — The Contrarian CapitalistSubstack on commodities, global markets and macro risk, focused on capital protection and asymmetric opportunities; syndicated by Prinsights for the September 2026 diesel-squeeze piece.
courseCMT — Chartered Market Technician designationThe technical-analysis credential Stöferle took instead of the CFA: Dow theory, chart patterns, technical indicators, sentiment analysis, relative strength and intermarket analysis — "very powerful tools to my toolbox."
documentThe Owner's Manual (Compounding Quality, 2023)The standing statement of the portfolio's philosophy — three buckets (owner-operators, monopolies & oligopolies, cannibal stocks) and the eight required company characteristics — reaffirmed as the go-forward constitution in the 1 September 2026 letter.
bookTomorrow's Gold — Marc FaberStarted this week via Ferg's book-triage rule ("after a book is recommended three times, I read it"); read alongside the Myrmikan piece, the historical pattern rhyming with the present one.
videoBanking-Vet: "Here's How Physics Explains Today's Financial Stress" — Mickey Maini (former Wall Street veteran), for PrinsightsInterview arguing that current market indicators misrepresent reality, using a physics framing for financial stress.
documentMomentum stocks post their worst quarterly underperformance in 25 years — Greg Zuckerman and Gunjan Banerji, The Wall Street JournalThe stats the committee builds its whole 2026-08-31 rotation argument on: momentum index -9%+ since July 1 vs the S&P's +2.8%, and July the second-worst momentum month in ~40 years (BofA), beaten only by April 2009.
podcastThe Oak BlokeUK small-cap/value Substack and livestream; John Polomny appeared on it to discuss a variety of investing subjects (the conversation is an embedded video, not transcribed in the email).
podcastAdapt on the Narrative — Edward DowdDowd's new Substack, announced at the end of this interview — where he follows up on the macro calls between research reports.
documentBessembinder's 4% study — Hendrik BessembinderCited by Carlisle as the counterweight to trimming winners — the tiny fraction of stocks that account for all net market wealth creation. Mayer: "I love how they make you think about things like that."
bookDeals from Hell: M&A Lessons that Rise Above the Ashes — Robert F. BrunerThe M&A research summary that changed Mayer's mind on growth-by-acquisition — the conclusion "goes against the grain": acquisition is "no worse off than anything else that companies invest their money in."
bookThe Investor's Odyssey — Chris MayerHis new book — long-term investing as Odysseus's journey; the sirens are everything (media, blinking prices, the urge to act) that calls you off holding a compounder.
bookBerkshire AfricaNamed as spoken — the book written by the African venture founder whose Nigeria/Kenya startup-lab model (every portfolio company cash-flow positive) Polomny says he has been researching for six months. He does not name the author, and no title/author was inferred beyond what he said.
documentHorizon Kinetics research library (free) — Horizon Kinetics / Murray StahlPolomny points readers at the firm's published research, given away free on its website, as the source of the West Texas land/water/power thesis behind TPL and LandBridge — including the physical arithmetic of how much water a megawatt of data centre needs.
bookOne Up On Wall Street — Peter LynchCited for the aggregates argument: rocks and gravel are cheap commodities, so the moat is location — a quarry is a local tollbooth, not a product business.
bookAsleep at the Wheel — Ted OakleyForthcoming late 2026 — aimed at baby boomers "90 95% in the market. They don't own anything else"; the case for balancing across asset classes while there is still time to choose.
bookInvesting in America — Meb Faber / Cambria Investment ManagementNew (2026) coffee-table book on the long history of US markets — sector leadership rotating from banks and insurance to rail and industrials to tech. All proceeds go to Investopedia's charity.
bookShareholder Yield — Meb FaberSubtitled 'a better approach to dividend yield' — the case that dividends + net buybacks + debt paydown beats high dividend yield and dividend growth. Faber: 'if you modeled it out, shareholder yield beats them all.'
bookStay Rich with a Balanced Portfolio — Ted OakleyThe allocation argument behind Oxbow's own book: balance across asset classes buys options, not smoother returns — "if you've got all of it in one thing, you don't have many options if that one thing goes bad."
documentThe Bear Market Diversification — Cambria Investment Management (Meb Faber)Cambria paper on the assets that lag through a long US bull — foreign, emerging, value, small — and rebound when it stalls; Faber cites it as the explanation for Cambria's 2026 fund performance.
documentThe Dividend Growth Myth — Cambria Investment Management (Meb Faber)Cambria paper arguing 'the chart that every asset manager publishes on dividend growth is based on a faulty study'; screened properly, dividend yield beats dividend growth, which is 'really market like.'
podcastThe Idea Farm — Meb Faber / CambriaFree weekly (Sunday) research digest at theideafarm.com — the top two or three research pieces and podcasts of the week plus papers, curated by humans rather than an algorithm. Formerly $500/yr, now free; Cambria's quarterly country-valuation metrics are published there.
podcastThe Meb Faber Show — Meb FaberTen-year-old long-form interview podcast with managers and researchers (David Booth of Dimensional; Rob Arnott 'half a dozen times'). Free; the channel through which the ideas behind the Cambria funds are argued.
bookUnscaled — Hemant TanejaThe source of Kris Heyndrikx's 'unscaled scalability' criterion: scale is now a disadvantage unless the product can be tuned to each customer — and the tuning must stay cheap at scale.
bookMargin of Safety — Seth KlarmanThe book behind Singh's house risk rule at Special Situations Research: "we almost never use leverage… about 20% cash at all times", amplifying only through defined-risk call spreads, because margin "puts all the power in the broker's hands". Read "a couple decades ago" and cited against the 4x-levered Situational Awareness blow-up.
videoSouth Park — "Margaritaville" (the "and it's gone" episode)Cited by Eisman as the shorthand for a levered position vanishing: when the pair trade reverses on a 4x-levered book, "as South Park said in the classic Margaritaville episode, and it's gone."
bookA Fabulous Debt: The Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World — Robin WigglesworthHis own new book — a history of the bond market from Renaissance Italy through canals, railways and the Napoleonic wars to AI data centres; the argument is that bonds, not banks, are now the dominant credit engine of the global economy. Interview pre-dates US publication (2026-09-22).
documentEmerging-market fixed income strategy — InvescoCirculated to the Q&A tab: "the Invesco and fixed income strategy I thought gave a pretty good overview of EM fixed income." Not saved in the archive folder.
documentMemory versus optical stocks — Goldman SachsExplains the August divergence: both groups fell 30% in July, but optical is outperforming memory by 20 points to start August "because the market sees it as a bigger supply issue."
documentPrivate equity is stuck with 33,575 unsold businesses — The New York Times / PitchBookThe week's red flag: the backlog up from 15,923 a decade ago, 80% of exits sold PE-to-PE and under 10% via IPO, PE returning 6.4% annually since July 2022 against 15% for the S&P and 19% for the Nasdaq, with Proofpoint, ancestry.com and Solera as case studies.
documentRoku / Fox preliminary S-4 — Background of the Merger — Roku and Fox Corporation (SEC filing)Recommended explicitly as teaching material: "it will show you how the 11 parties were contacted, how the bid eventually went through, and it tends to be quite educational for people who are trying to understand how these deals come together." 11 counterparties canvassed from March 2026, only three in real diligence, only Fox bidding, $154 to $160 per share.
documentU.S. Fixed Income — August 2026 — FidelityIncluded on the call for one reason: "it shows how much prefs have done better than fixed income." Covers the Treasury market, investment grade and high yield, with the July payroll loss of 23,000 and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% on a shrinking labour force. Saved in the archive folder.
documentWeekly Bulletin — Strong earnings and broadening capex keep us constructive — Citi (JP Coviello, Kate Moore, Conrad DeQuadros, Olaolu Aganga)The Aug 11 piece he singles out as "quite good": Q2 delivered real earnings growth rather than a valuation re-rating, the AI build-out is broadening into infrastructure, power, resources and security, and pullbacks should be bought rather than sold. Saved in the archive folder.
documentWeekly Market View — Geopolitical stalemate, cooling jobs and inflation — Standard Chartered Global CIO OfficeCited for its editorial on the Middle East stalemate and for its weekly macro balance sheet of what is positive versus negative for risk assets, plus a top-client-questions page on US high yield, China tech equities and the gold/AUD correlation. Saved in the archive folder.
courseCommodity University — mergers & acquisitions course — Jay Martin / Commodity UniversityCourse on resource-sector M&A referenced by the host as the prompt for Rule's target-screen answer (delta, size, strategic vs tactical).
documentPershing Square Q2 2026 investor report — Pershing Square Capital ManagementIn-depth quarterly letter: full strategy, every holding's performance, plus valuation and implied 5-year EPS growth per name — Carlson benchmarks each implied rate against sell-side consensus to find where Ackman most disagrees with the market.
podcastPotential Multibaggers — Kris HeyndrikxGrowth-investing newsletter launched 2 May 2017 with Shopify as its first pick; a deep dive on every holding each quarter and about five articles before any new position is opened.
document3Q Asset Allocation Guide — Morgan StanleyMulti-asset global strategy guide uploaded to the SSR Q&A tab; Singh flags its sections on inflation, small vs large cap, growth vs value, EM divergence, Japan, the Eurozone and US equities.
documentAugust View update — BlackRockMulti-asset global investment outlook circulated on the call; saved in the archive folder.
documentMorgan Stanley on prediction markets — Michael Mauboussin (Morgan Stanley)One of two pieces Singh tells subscribers to read this week — "it doesn't just cover prediction markets, it covers equities and decision-making as well." Saved with the call as MS on Prediction Markets.pdf.
documentWeekly Global Asset Allocation Strategy — HSBCGlobal macro perspective, one of the ten research PDFs uploaded to the SSR Q&A tab.
documentWeekly Global Asset Allocation Update — Standard CharteredMulti-asset strategy update circulated on the call; saved in the archive folder.
documentWeekly Market Pulse — Goldman Sachs Asset ManagementInstitutional flow and positioning update circulated on the call; saved in the archive folder.
documentYield curve control coming to a theater near you (X thread) — Doug CaseyThe thread Polomny reads verbatim on the mechanics of yield curve control, the euphemisms to expect, and "the Fed has only two tools in its toolkit, currency debasement and gaslighting."
bookLiar's Poker — Michael LewisLewis' era-defining book on 1980s high finance; Salzman quotes it for the line that made "Equities in Dallas" shorthand for career exile — the insult the Texas financial-hub boom has now inverted.
videoAmazon's Growth is About to Explode — Joseph CarlsonHis own Sept 5 2025 episode, pulled up ten months later to grade the thesis — AWS reaccelerating to ~25% would make Amazon "dramatically undervalued" at 240–260. The Aug-2026 print came in at 36.7% and $285.
podcastFergOne of two macro/commodity newsletters Paulo names as "both worth subscribing" — cited for their (early but correct) spring-2024 platinum work.
podcastLe ShrubThe second newsletter Paulo names as "worth subscribing" alongside Ferg — cited for the same spring-2024 platinum call that illustrates his "visibility tell" (a valid thesis can still take a year to work).
documentQ3 Investment Management Outlook — State StreetQuarterly data pack on global ETF flows and asset allocation from one of the world's largest ETF issuers — recommended as a reference dataset rather than a view.
documentValue Investors Club — Joel Greenblatt & John PetryFree idea archive (email signup, ~60-day delay) of member-written stock write-ups covering the business and the operator; Pabrai's stated sourcing method is to read every write-up 'till something hits me in the head with a 2 by 4'.
talkWhy portfolio managers wash out — and why Citadel keeps working — Ken GriffinA public interview Singh replays as the post-mortem on the Situational Awareness blowup: managers fail on extreme concentration plus an inarticulable edge plus loss aversion; the firm endures because "it is the price paid in losses and the pain that converts that into wisdom."
documentInitial Public Offerings: Updated Statistics — Jay R. Ritter, University of Florida (July 7, 2026)The IPO base-rate study HK cites: of 9,000+ IPOs over 46 years to 2021, 56% traded below their IPO price after three years — 60% for day-one closing buyers.
talkMurray Stahl vs. John Bogle — active vs. passive management (Grant's Interest Rate Observer, 2017)The debate HK cites as the origin of its "we agree with 95% of it" position on indexation; the shared ground is that compounding requires an unbroken long horizon.
documentThe Devil's Advocate — Fredrik Tjernstrom / Horizon KineticsHorizon Kinetics' short-sale research report.
bookThe Intelligent Investor — Benjamin GrahamCalled by Buffett the best investing book ever written; cited for the idea that a share makes you the owner of a business.
documentThings That Make You Go Hmmm… (TTMYGH) — "KOSPI TURVY" — Grant WilliamsGrant Williams' monthly missive; the KOSPI TURVY issue documents that by June 18, 2026 the South Korean stock market had generated more return in 8.5 months than in its prior 45 years — the blow-off statistic behind Haymaker's EWY sell and semis warning.
talkTrying to solve the investment puzzle — Chuck AkreAkre's own talk on the three-legged stool and compounding machines; linked at the end of the profile.
podcastThe Felder Report — Jesse FelderNewsletter of charts on market leverage, valuation and positioning — margin debt vs trend, margin-debt-to-GDP, cash-vs-margin, and the yen/AI-trade teeter-totter; cited approvingly by Hay and the host as "a great newsletter."
documentIn Gold We Trust (annual chart pack) — Incrementum AGIncrementum's annual gold report / chart pack — the work the firm is known for, publisher of the Active Aurum Signal.
bookAccounting for Growth — Terry SmithThe 1992 book exposing corporate accounting tricks; controversial enough that it got its author fired.
documentEd Zitron note on Oracle & the AI debt bubble (Where's Your Ed At) — Ed ZitronRecommended read on how deeply the AI-debt problem runs at Oracle — the section on Oracle and Larry Ellison's fortune, incl. the ~$90bn FY2027 capex and $300bn+ OpenAI/Stargate commitments.
book100 Baggers: Stocks That Return 100-to-1 and How to Find Them — Chris MayerPolomny flagged that its author gave a talk at Abacus Global Management's (ABX) 7/16/26 investor day — a signal management is framing the company around the very-long-hold, very-high-multiple playbook.
documentDownunder Daily — Gerard MinackMinack Advisors' markets/economics research note; Haymaker's "favorite Aussie financial analyst" and a regular must-read. The Jul-14 2026 issue argued US equities are far more overvalued on a cyclically-adjusted cash-flow than earnings basis ("earnings are an opinion; cash is a fact").
bookThe Science of Hitting — Ted WilliamsThe batting-discipline classic behind Fred Hickey's "keep the bat on your shoulder and wait for the fat pitch" investing analogy.
bookThe International Man — Doug CaseyBank in one country, live in another, invest in a third — jurisdictional diversification; don't be a 'homer.'
talkRick Rule's conference speech on private placements — Rick RuleCited by the interviewer as a 'game changer' on how sophisticated investors use private placements and warrants versus buying in the market ('it's on YouTube — people should go and find it'). Rule's caveat: placements with warrants only work in bear markets; in bull markets nobody gives you warrants — 'just say no.'
bookGood To Great — Jim CollinsWhy some companies achieve exceptional long-run results: leadership, the right people and years of disciplined decisions rather than one product or lucky break.
bookLessons From The Titans — Scott DavisRecommended as a study of what made great investors successful - note that the published book actually studies industrial conglomerates (GE, Honeywell, Boeing), so the recommendation's description does not match the book.
bookThe Art of Playing Defense — Whitney TilsonHow to avoid the mistakes that permanently damage a portfolio - fraud, bad management, excessive debt; protecting capital before finding winners.
bookThe Complete Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway — Adam MeadBerkshire from failing textile mill to global conglomerate, with deep dives on See's Candies, GEICO and Apple; "a must read book for any serious investor."
bookThe Compounders — Kjetil NylandWhat Costco, Nike, Microsoft and LVMH have in common: strong brands, great management, loyal customers, and reinvestment at high rates of return.
bookTurning The Flywheel — Jim CollinsThe flywheel: small high-quality decisions repeated consistently create momentum and extraordinary results - Amazon as the worked example.
bookWarren Buffett's Early Investments — Brett GardnerListed in the summer-reads summary (it replaces The Art of Quality Investing in the closing list); no description given in the post.
bookWhat I Learned About Investing from Darwin — Pulak PrasadNatural selection applied to business quality: the companies that last adapt, stay resilient and keep improving - the same survival-as-evidence logic behind the Lindy screen.
documentCME FedWatch Tool — CME GroupReads fed-funds futures pricing to show market-implied probabilities of Fed rate moves at upcoming meetings; here it put July-29 hike odds below 30% after a weak payrolls print.
talkRule Natural Resources Investment Symposium — Rule Investment MediaAnnual resource-investing conference (2026: Boca Raton, Jul 6–10; livestream available) — 46 hours over 4 days, vetted exhibitors only, Living Legends + new 'Next Legends' features, and a 30-year unconditional money-back guarantee (refunds under 0.1% of tuition).
podcastSlow Compounding — AlexanderSubstack publishing very long-form investment cases; contributed the 186-page HEICO deep dive that Compounding Quality summarised and then scored independently.
documentThe Macro Tourist — Kevin MuirNewsletter Paulo explicitly recommends subscribing to ('he is excellent'); cited his bullish energy note.
documentReinvesting When Terrified — Jeremy GranthamGrantham's March-2009 one-page note urging investors to buy near the market bottom — cited as the rare moment he turned constructive.
documentWarren Buffett's 2007 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter — Warren BuffettThe source of the good/great/gruesome taxonomy and the See's Candies capital-intensity arithmetic that Compounding Quality uses as a live filter.
documentKopernik Global Investors — Dave Iben investor commentary — Kopernik Global InvestorsRecurring value-shop letter on dollar debasement (>99.5% loss vs gold over a century; perpetual $2T deficits) — a research input Polomny tracks.
documentThe Flow Show (Bank of America) — Michael Hartnett / BofABofA's widely-cited weekly fund-flow research note. The desk's source for the record $9.3B tech outflow and the MAGS ETF $60 'risk-off for the summer' level for the MAG 7.
talkInvesting in Uncertain Markets — Adam Taggart with Pieter SlegersFive ideas: controlling emotions, identifying high-quality businesses, capital allocation as the CEO's most valuable skill, cross-market valuation differences, and running dollar-cost averaging properly.
talkStocks to own forever (Stock Club podcast) — Emmett Savage with Pieter SlegersMoats and lasting value, real pricing power, reverse DCFs as a way to read what the market expects, letting winners run, and why focused specialists beat the big players.
talkThe cheapest since 1999 (The Money Printer podcast) — Garrett Baldwin with Pieter SlegersWhy quality stocks are at dotcom-era relative valuations, free cash flow as the central measure, the metrics that matter, and AI risk.
talkThe Compounding Quality Story — Pieter SlegersThe full origin story of the newsletter and the business, recorded after a meeting at the Berkshire AGM in Omaha.
talkThe essence of quality investing (webinar) — Compounding QualityStandalone session on the philosophy behind the letter - the six/seven-criterion quality framework.
courseSpecial Situations Investing (class) — Joel GreenblattA class on special-situations investing — spin-offs, merger arbitrage, recapitalizations and restructurings; shared with the call as a primer ("very well done").
podcastThe Macro Butler — Laurent LequeuGlobal-macro Substack on markets and the financial system; Nomi Prins hosts Lequeu and 'could not recommend following his work enough.'
documentJay Ritter IPO returns dataset (University of Florida) — Jay Ritter, University of FloridaDefinitive 40-year IPO dataset: from first-day close over 5 yrs, 50% of operating-company IPOs (>=$100M sales) were negative, 30% lost half+, only 24% became multi-baggers; underperformance worst 6-24 months in (lock-up expiry).
videoA Warning to ARK Investors — Joseph CarlsonHis 2021 cautionary case on ARK Invest / Cathie Wood (then +615% over 10 yrs) as the template for crowd-chasing; ARKK later crashed and topped Morningstar's wealth-destroying ETFs (~$14.3B erased, mostly retail).
documentDatacenters Are the New Shale Oil (two-part series on the economics of AI datacenters) — John PolomnyArgues AI datacenters are deeply negative-ROIC investments funded down a ladder of desperation (cash flow -> debt -> equity issuance), analogous to last decade's shale CEOs drilling negative-ROIC wells — a MAG7 capital-intensity bubble.
bookCommon Stocks and Uncommon Profits — Philip FisherSacerdote says Whale Rock's scuttlebutt research process comes 'right out of' this 1950s classic.
bookThe Dow Jones Averages: A Guide to Whole InvestingCited as a favorite on right-brain/left-brain investing — the creative, dot-connecting side of great investors.
podcastRule Investment Media (YouTube channel) — Rick RuleFree pre-conference interviews with every symposium exhibitor — recommended resource-investing learning content.
documentTriples Special Situations InvestingSubstack newsletter — source of the Presidio (FTW) warrant idea Polomny owns as a higher-risk kicker.
bookThe Outsiders — William ThorndikeDescribed as "the bible of capital allocation"; its author is co-chairman of Perimeter Solutions, whose opportunistic 12%-of-shares buyback at ~$6 in 2023 is offered as the philosophy in practice.
bookExtraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds — Charles Mackay1841 classic; Paulo Macro quotes 'men think in herds… they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.'
bookThe Joys of Compounding — Gautam BaidNamed as the book whose author's single recommendation started Compounding Quality's growth, used to argue that outcomes hinge on unpredictable events.
bookBoy Plunger: Jesse Livermore — Tom RubythonBiography of Jesse Livermore; cited alongside Reminiscences on 1920s management-pool trading dynamics.
bookReminiscences of a Stock Operator — Edwin LefevreThe Jesse Livermore classic; Paulo Macro suggests re-reading it (with Boy Plunger) on trading in a pre-SEC, pool-driven market.
videoThe Crash Course — exponential growth (the stadium example) — Chris Martenson2011 presentation on why humans under-appreciate exponential growth; Paulo Macro cites the stadium-filling-with-water analogy for oil inventory draws.
bookThe Perceptive Investor — Ardal Loh-GronagerNamed as 'the excellent book' by a previous Compounding Quality interviewee; the interview is linked alongside it.
documentPrem Watsa's Fairfax shareholder letters — Prem WatsaRead on the flight to the 2026 Berkshire AGM: 'The shareholder letters of Prem Watsa are a must read.' The primary source behind the CAD 3,000 intrinsic-value estimate for Fairfax.
bookThe Fairfax WayThe story of how Prem Watsa copied Berkshire Hathaway's business model at Fairfax and compounded the shares from CAD 3.25 in 1985 to CAD 2,346 — 'almost a 1.000-bagger'. Slegers: 'It's a must read.'
podcastHedgeye — Keith McCulloughIndependent research firm McDonald recommends as part of a basket of unbiased research providers.
bookThe Big Short — Michael LewisMcDonald invokes the book/film's ratings-agency scene as a parallel to today's private-credit rating agencies.
podcastThe Daily Dirtnap — Jared DillianIndependent research newsletter McDonald recommends owning alongside other independent voices rather than sell-side research.
podcast50XNamed as a source for the TransDigm deep dive, along with its slide deck on the company. A podcast on businesses that have compounded fifty-fold or more.
document9 Investing truths to remember — Compounding QualityThe publication's own catalogue of investor biases, referenced from the psychology issue, which itself names six: recency bias, loss aversion ("a loss of $100 feels twice as painful as the satisfaction of a $100 gain"), confirmation bias, overconfidence bias, sunk cost fallacy and mental accounting.
podcastMarket Huddle — Kevin MuirPaulo Macro's year-end appearance ('Turducken of Market Risks') referenced; Kevin Muir cited repeatedly as a sharp macro voice.
documentOur Owner's Manual (2023) — Compounding QualityThe publication's founding statement of strategy, written in 2023 and invoked during the March 2026 drawdown as the anchor to return to — "the best thing you can do during challenging times, is to stick to the plan. The plan we already outlined in Our Owner's Manual in 2023." The pattern is worth copying regardless of the content: a plan written in calm conditions is what a drawdown is measured against.
bookThe Big Short — Michael LewisSy Jacobs went through Salomon Brothers' 1985 training program with Michael Lewis and is named in chapter one; the book chronicles the mortgage-securitization era and the subprime-mortgage short.
bookInvesting for Growth — Terry SmithOffered as the e-book version of Smith's three-line strategy: buy good companies, don't overpay, do nothing (hold for the long term).
bookA Colossal Failure of Common Sense — Larry McDonaldHis NYT-bestselling inside story of Lehman's collapse and credit-risk contagion; cited as a parallel to today's private-credit stress.
book★ How to Listen When Markets Speak — Larry McDonaldHis 2024 book on the shift from financial assets to hard assets, financial repression and the dark side of passive investing.
bookThe Professional Commodity Trader — Stanley KrollKroll's 1974 diary of charts (wheat May74 contract) Paulo Macro uses to confirm the 1973 wheat moves and an unusually backwardated ag curve.
book100 Baggers — Chris MayerRecommended alongside a prior Compounding Quality interview with the author. Its twin-engine decomposition — a share price rises on earnings growth multiplied by multiple change — recurs across the 2026 archive.
bookThe Little Book That Still Beats the Market — Joel GreenblattCalled "pure gold"; the source of the Magic Formula, cited as returning 33% a year between 1985 and 2005. Compounding Quality publishes a three-page summary.
bookOne Up on Wall Street — Peter LynchDescribed as "one of the best investing books ever"; the source of the circle-of-competence sourcing method — finding investment ideas by noticing what people around you actually buy.
documentThe Peter Lynch Playbook — Mayur JainA 23-page PDF summarising Lynch's investment strategy, linked as "pure gold" in the Compounding Quality profile of his 29.3%-a-year Magellan record.
bookSupermoney — Adam Smith (George Goodman)Source of the 'champagne ball with the Black Horsemen / none of the clocks have any hands' late-cycle metaphor Paulo Macro quotes.
podcastAlpha Exchange — Dean CurnuttPodcast where Muir first encountered the gold-as-hedge-asset framing — gold married to risk assets the way bonds used to be.
documentFiscal AI — Braden DennisAI-native financial research platform - 20 years of financials, company-specific KPIs and segments, filings/IR with per-document AI querying, screener, cross-company charting, dashboard; every cell traces back to the filing. Free plan now includes 10 years of history.
podcastTalking Billions — Bogumil Baranowski (Blue Infinitas Capital)Long-form interviews on money, business ownership and 'a rich life beyond money', with listener office-hours episodes.
podcastStansberry Research Podcast — Stansberry ResearchPointed to in the 20 January #QualityTuesday as a recent guest appearance covering "AI and market momentum" and "a company I'm excited about right now" — the company is not named in the post.
documentaryWarren Buffett - A Life and LegacyRecommended in the 20 January #QualityTuesday as "a must watch this week… full of wisdom. Both for life as investing," in the issue built around Buffett's retirement and the inactivity rule ("your investment portfolio is like a bar of soap — the more you touch it, the smaller it gets").
documentNovo Nordisk Investment Case (78-page Deep Dive) — Steven Van Den BurgA 78-page investment case on Novo Nordisk written by a Compounding Quality community member and published in full alongside the 15 January summary. The house layer kept in-house is the conclusion and the valuation — Novo at 16.9x next year's earnings against Eli Lilly's 34.1x, and a reverse DCF (run on EPS rather than FCF because of heavy capex) requiring only 2.9% annual growth for a 10% return. Same structure as the guest-written FICO and Brookfield deep dives.
documentValue Line earnings-predictability rating — Value LineA 0-100 research metric for how reliably a company's earnings can be forecast (Jacobs rated 90/100); Buffett reportedly kept a Value Line binder on his desk.
bookThe Art of Quality Investing — Pieter SlegersSlegers' book on the quality-investing framework, promoted at the foot of the Compounding Quality issues.
bookGive and Take — Adam GrantEvery person is a giver, taker or matcher; givers, who don't keep score, tend to end up most successful — Pabrai's favorite relationship mental model.
bookThe Dhandho Investor — Mohnish PabraiHis playbook for minimizing risk while keeping upside — 'heads I win, tails I don't lose much'; nine Dhandho principles, the Patel motel story.
bookStocks for the Long Run — Jeremy SiegelCited for the study that the top decile of earnings-to-free-cash-flow converters beat the bottom decile by ~18% — grounds Slegers' >90% FCF-conversion quality criterion.
bookRisks and Returns — Wilbur RossRoss's book; Cole had him on the podcast to discuss it and the softwood-lumber trade dispute he ran as Commerce Secretary.
bookThe Money Masters — John TrainIts Tweedy Browne chapter ('The Pawnbrokers') describes Tweedy's pink-sheet net-net specialty — Robotti's early template for buying obscure, deeply discounted securities.
documentThe Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville — Warren BuffettBuffett's 1984 essay arguing value investors' outperformance isn't luck; cited re: Tweedy Browne, where Buffett bought the bulk of his Berkshire shares.
Economics & Monetary Policy · 63
documentThe Draghi report on EU competitiveness — Mario DraghiCited by Deluard as the latest in Europe's run of "bold and brave" reports that assume productivity can be decreed from Brussels.
documentThe Lisbon Strategy (2000) — European CouncilThe 2000 plan to make Europe the leading knowledge economy by 2010 — Deluard's example that productivity targets set in Brussels don't deliver.
bookBreakneck — Dan WangChina as an engineering state vs the US as a lawyerly/political state (70% of Chinese politicians have engineering degrees vs 70% of US politicians with law degrees); cited to explain why China builds reactors faster and cheaper.
podcastCurrency of Power (newsletter & podcast) — Nicolas Colin & Marieke FlamentOn the new monetary order and stablecoins; launched 2025 as Euro Stable Watch, then widened to the reinvention of money.
bookMerry-Go-Round Broke Down — David WooWoo's book, plugged at the end of the interview (title as spoken in the auto-transcript; on Amazon, TV adaptation in development).
bookTechnological Revolutions and Financial Capital — Carlota Perez2002 book: technological revolutions about every 70 years, each passing through phases to a maturity phase in which finance gets reinvented; Colin's core framework for the 'great financial reset'.
documentThe Great Financial Reset Has Begun — Nicolas Colin & Marieke Flament (Currency of Power)Summer-2026 essay arguing the year's market tremors are the start of a structural shift in the global monetary order.
bookEnd the Fed — Ron PaulRon Paul's case for abolishing the Federal Reserve; cited as he argues a fast unwind would be chaos but waiting makes the bust worse.
documentOn the Iran War, AI Transformation and Tracking — J.P. MorganCirculated with the SSR call.
documentUS Fixed Income, September 2026 — FidelityCirculated with the SSR call.
documentWhy Japan Matters to US Bond Investors — BlackRockCirculated with the SSR call during the yen-intervention and JGB-yield discussion.
documentBloomberg Price Project — Bloomberg EconomicsBloomberg's price-mapping dataset of over a million prices across 300,000 categories a month, used to attribute CPI surprises to specific categories and firms.
bookCapital Wars — Michael HowellHowell's book on global liquidity and the rise of liquidity-driven markets; written pre-COVID but the principles still apply.
bookAn unnamed Jim Rickards book (title not recalled on air) — Jim RickardsGromen retells its opening scene — a meeting where a top BlackRock exec's consigliere describes Treasury's direct line into the firm: in a crisis one phone call locks down ~$5trn, "no sales," and the rest of the market follows. Gromen is explicit that he cannot remember which book it was; he dates his reading to '08, '09 or maybe '11.
documentThe Fed Tightening? Not Now — Kevin Warsh and Stanley Druckenmiller (op-ed, December 2018)Gromen's exhibit that Warsh is not a hawk: the op-ed begged "in all caps" against further hikes because bank stocks were 15% off the highs, while employment (a lagging indicator, as the authors conceded) was still fine.
bookEssay on the Nature of Trade in General (Essai sur la Nature du Commerce en Général) — Richard Cantillon18th-century source of the Cantillon effect: new money changes relative prices, benefiting its first recipients.
bookLiberty and Property — Ludwig von MisesMises lecture on capitalism and private property; the host's pick, endorsed by Casey ("he's the man… all his thoughts are excellent").
bookThe Dollar Crisis — Richard DuncanCited for Japan's liquidity trap hurting corporate profitability — his explanation for Japan Tobacco's weak returns.
documentGreen Shoots — Jan Hatzius / Goldman Sachs (2009)The note published at the depths of the financial crisis with the S&P near 600 that, for Murti, was the trigger to reinstate the back-to-$100 oil call - 'that was all we needed to say okay we're going back up now.'
documentYield Curve Control (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis explainer) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisQuoted at length for the 1942-51 US precedent: rates pegged at 3/8% and 2.5%, the Fed forced to keep buying and forfeiting control of its balance sheet, CPI over 17% by 1947 and over 20% annualized in 1951 before the Treasury-Fed Accord.
documentAI Debt Failure Will Prompt Another Wave of Fed Bailouts — Myrmikan ResearchFerg's article-of-the-week: the historical arc from a debt-financed build-out to failure to central-bank rescue — "nothing like a good dose of history to help understand the present."
documentIn Gold We Trust report 2026 — Back to the Monetary Future (20th edition) — Ronald-Peter Stöferle & Mark Valek, Incrementum AGThe annual flagship gold/monetary-system report, free: 480 pages plus a compact version, all previous editions, and monthly chartbooks. This edition argues gold is being remonetized along six vectors and sets an $8,900 base case for 2030.
bookThe Wealth of Nations — Adam SmithCited for the line he uses as the brake on every collapse thesis - "there's a great deal of ruin in a country": empires carry enormous built-up inertia, so a certain outcome is not an imminent one.
bookValues: Building a Better World for All — Mark CarneyCited critically from a circulating list of quotes (he flags he has not read it and does not know if the lines are paraphrased) as the text behind "rule by technocrat" - social credit, freedoms redefined by bureaucrats, "experts will replace democracy."
documentCLARITY ActThe companion crypto-market-structure bill Every expects before year-end; he thinks it settles whether stablecoin issuers must pass the underlying T-bill interest through to holders.
podcastForest for the Trees — Luke GromenMacro newsletter Hay reads and relays; source of the Columbia Business School chart showing that prior eras of efficiency/technology-driven spending have never been this large a share of GDP.
documentGENIUS ActUS stablecoin legislation; Treasury opened public input on it the day before the buyback announcement. Includes a bar on foreign stablecoins operating in the US — the template Every expects the EU/ECB to mirror.
podcastGrant's Interest Rate Observer — Jim GrantLong-running independent fixed-income research letter; cited for the finding that the new supply of Treasuries held by the public surged 8.4% year-over-year, implying the reported deficit understates the actual borrowing.
documentPhinance Technologies US economic, housing and China research reports — Phinance TechnologiesThe paid research behind the three-pillars thesis — the start-of-2026 US economic report, the periodically updated real-estate reports, and the China report (source of the −9.5% YoY net-fixed-investment figure). Sold at phinancetechnologies.com.
documentWSJ op-ed against Treasury yield suppression — Stan DruckenmillerPublished in the Wall Street Journal 2026-08-25: 'Governments defending prices against fundamentals always lose… not with the most important price in the world, and not when that price is trying to say the one thing Washington most needs to hear: Let the bond market speak.'
documentStealth Financial Repression — DoombergArgues US equity market cap functions as debt monetization — capital-gains tax is the driving function of US tax receipts, so each trillion-dollar IPO creates ~$150B of collectible gains.
documentRevisiting the Treasury-Fed Accord — Jeffrey M. Lacker (testimony, US House Financial Services Committee)The week's institutional set-piece, walked page by page. Argues the Federal Reserve Act's overlooked third mandate — moderate long-term interest rates — is satisfied by credible price stability, not by capping yields or buying bonds, and that any new Treasury-Fed accord must legally force a bills-only Fed. Read on the call as a direct critique of the Bessent/Warsh playbook.
documentFinancial Accounting Manual for Federal Reserve Banks — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemPublic document published at least annually; section 2.10 governs the gold certificate account and its revaluation. Cited as the primary source anyone can read rather than take on trust.
documentMonthly Macro Insights — August 2026 — Marc-Antoine Collard (Rothschild & Co)"Okay and kind of framing July and August" — the global economy pulled in opposite directions by technology-driven investment tailwinds against geopolitics, trade fragmentation and rising long-term rates. Saved in the archive folder.
bookKaput: The End of the German Economic Miracle — Wolfgang MünchauEisman calls it "a great book" while trailing his premium interview with the author on why European growth is so sclerotic.
documentGeopolitical strategy note — Deutsche BankGeopolitical risk analysis circulated alongside the Iran-war section of the call.
documentJapan Optimist — Jesper KollNewsletter by the long-time Tokyo-based investment banker quoted at length on the BoJ's refusal to hike — "could it be that Japan's financial system is so weak that an accelerated rate hike would trigger a possible banking crisis?"
documentThe impact of AI on the labor market — Apollo Global ManagementThe other must-read of the week — "I really would read the Apollo piece on the impact of AI in the labor market. That was quite a nice read."
documentYen carry trade chartbook — Apollo Global ManagementCited throughout the FX section: USD/JPY tracked US-Japan rate differentials from 1995 to April 2025, then detached toward fiscal worries after the trade wars; charts on Japanese corporate profits, shareholder activism, Japan's Treasury holdings and bond flows.
documentState-Owned Enterprises in Uzbekistan: Issues and Reform Options — International Monetary FundIMF technical research paper on Uzbekistan's SOEs and the challenges and opportunities of privatizing them — Polomny flags it as "useful for those invested in the Uzbek fund" (UZNF), since SOE privatization is the mechanism the fund's re-rating case rests on.
documentA Cruel Summer — HSBCA short macro read on global growth drag and seasonal liquidity tightness, uploaded live during the call.
documentMacro Views for August — AmundiThird-party monthly macro outlook circulated with the call; saved in the 2026-aug-02 archive folder.
documentNow for the Hard Part — Standard CharteredA 33-page strategy piece on inflation persistence, bond-market volatility, central-bank policy constraints and energy — circulated to subscribers during the call.
bookCapitalism and Its Critics: A History from the Industrial Revolution to AI — John CassidyEisman interviewed the author last year; cited in the mailbag answering a viewer on the K-shaped economy. Its opening chart — global average GDP per capita, years 1 to 2022 — shows wealth flat from year 1 to the early 1800s then vertical: 'one of the more fascinating graphs that I have ever seen.' Cassidy is a critic of capitalism 'but even he admits that the world is better off with capitalism than without it.'
documentI give a fig (Substack) — China's electricity generation per capita — Mike GreenQuoted on China's power trajectory possibly exceeding US per-capita levels by 2030, letting its export model shift "from shipping embodied energy ... to shipping embodied intelligence as tokens."
documentFFTT (Forest for the Trees) — Luke GromenThe macro research service whose analysis Jikh credits as the framework for his $38,000-gold video (Hamiltonian economics, the trilemma, gold as neutral reserve asset, US gold exports to China).
documentReform the International Monetary System (2009 PBOC paper) — Zhou XiaochuanThe Chinese central-bank governor's post-GFC essay calling for an international reserve currency 'disconnected from individual nations' — the official revival of Keynes's bancor idea and the intellectual start of China's gold-accumulation strategy.
documentaryEmpire of DustYouTube documentary on how resource extraction in Africa really works — why it 'never really emerges.'
bookThe Big Print — Lawrence LepardThe endgame of money printing — the balance-sheet expansion he expects to eventually 'crank the printing press back up.'
bookThe Only Game in Town — Mohamed El-ErianOn the post-crisis era when central banks and zero rates were 'the only game in town' — Teich contrasts it with today's fiscal-driven regime where direct government spending drives nominal growth.
documentOMFIF 2026 Global Public Investor survey — Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF)Annual survey of central banks and public funds; the 2026 edition found 61% of 90 respondents expect gold to settle at $5,000–$6,000/oz within a year.
documentCFR Global Monetary Policy Tracker — Council on Foreign RelationsIndex across ~55 central banks; positive = net tightening, negative = net easing — used as a global-liquidity dial.
documentGold and Economic Freedom — Alan Greenspan (1966)Pre-Fed Greenspan essay: 'Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the hidden confiscation of wealth... gold stands in the way.' (Found via Barry Ritholtz's site.)
documentProject 2025 — Mandate for Leadership, Chapter 24 (The Federal Reserve) — Paul Winfrey (Heritage Foundation)Chapter exploring a return to or parallel gold standard to fight Fed-created boom/bust cycles, highlighting gold-convertible Treasury instruments (gold bonds) as a practical transitional tool.
bookCause Unknown — Edward DowdDowd's own book, referenced in his bio (ex-BlackRock PM turned founder of Phinance Technologies).
bookAll the Presidents' Bankers — Nomi PrinsFirst book of her trilogy on Wall Street and political power.
bookCollusion — Nomi PrinsSecond book of her central-banks trilogy, named alongside All the Presidents' Bankers and Permanent Distortion.
bookPermanent Distortion — Nomi PrinsHer book on government/central-bank intervention during crises; the interview repeatedly ties commodity supply-chain dislocations back to its thesis.
bookThe Myth of CapitalismQuoted for the Buffett competition hierarchy that defines the portfolio's second bucket: "If he can't buy a monopoly, he'll buy a duopoly. And if he can't buy a duopoly, he'll settle for an oligopoly."
bookBubble 3.0 — David Hay (the elder Haymaker)Chronicled the post-2020 inflation eruption and bond bear market, published in segments beginning at the start of 2022.
documentEquity funding primer — Kevin Muir (The Macro Tourist)Early-Sept 2025 primer explaining how banks price the cost of funding equity positions (total-return swaps) and why that cost tripled in 4Q24 — the mechanics behind the AIR TRF.
documentApollo Credit Market Outlook (post-election deck) — Torsten Slok (Apollo)A ~130-page post-2024-election credit-market deck cited throughout the call: ~81% of the world's bonds yield under 5%, and IG/HY credit spreads sit at multi-year (15-year) tights — so a 9% baby bond pays ~400 bps above where the bulk of global debt trades. The framework for judging income cheapness on spread, not headline yield.
documentBlackRock/iShares "$1 in 1913 = 3 cents" dollar-debasement chart — BlackRock / iSharesA BlackRock slide showing a 1913 gold-backed dollar worth ~3 cents by 2023 (~97% loss over a century), framing Bitcoin alongside Treasuries and gold as a monetary alternative. Polomny: "This is BlackRock saying that, not Peter Schiff."
Energy & Commodities · 54
documentUranium: Resources, Production and Demand (the "Red Book"), 2026 edition — OECD Nuclear Energy Agency & International Atomic Energy AgencyBiennial joint report built on government data from dozens of countries - the uranium sector's 'official census'; 2026 conclusion: sufficient resources, insufficient investment, with the shortfall starting ~2030 at realistic mine output.
documentAurelion Research commodity outlook (five commodities: gold, copper, uranium, oil, fertilizer) — Aurelion ResearchThe free report discussed in the interview; available at aurelionresearch.com and on Substack.
documentBeijing Swing series — Rory Johnston (Commodity Context)Multi-part series on China's record 5.4 mb/d crude-import cut in the Hormuz crisis — a product-by-product balance vs end-use activity arguing it was a discretionary hidden-inventory draw, not demand destruction
documentOil Context Weekly — Rory Johnston (Commodity Context)Friday-close weekly oil roundup with a CFTC Commitments of Traders chart pack (net spec as % of open interest across the big-6 crude contracts)
documentFrom Blueprint to Fleet: Mapping the Nuclear Trade — Ocean WallBreaks the Westinghouse AP1000 into parts; screens 144 suppliers on a 25-point score (deliverability + localization); includes a component lead-time table and a reactor-pressure-vessel forging matrix. Conclusions: Westinghouse/Cameco, Doosan, BWXT.
documentWPIC Platinum Quarterly — Q2 2026 — World Platinum Investment CouncilQuarterly platinum supply/demand balance; Q2 2026 edition flipped the 2026 forecast to a 265koz surplus with H2 back in deficit.
documentThe Cupboard Is Nearly Bare — RFC Ambrian2018 copper report that screened global copper projects for the next 20 years and projected a 2030s supply deficit from under-investment and failed exploration; Santo Tomas made its short list of independent large projects.
documentIAEA RDS-1 (Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates to 2050) — IAEAProjects SMRs at 23-28% of new nuclear capacity by 2060, ~60% in North America.
documentWorld Nuclear Outlook Report (second edition) — World Nuclear AssociationWNA capacity outlook: 2050 projection 1,457 GWe, 559 GWe only government ambition; start rates must rise ~6x for tripling; no age-related capacity-factor decline.
documentThe Case for Uranium — Uranium Insider (Justin Huhn)Free white paper offered with sign-up to the Uranium Insider email list.
videoNexGen Energy Rook I construction webinar — NexGen Energy~35-minute company webinar walking through every aspect of the Rook I / Arrow build and its dates; Curyer says NexGen will report progress against it — a worked example of a developer publishing an auditable construction schedule investors can track quarter by quarter.
podcastBison Insights — Josh YoungPaid newsletter started ~mid-2025 (bisoninsights.info) - stock ideas he is himself invested in plus macro analysis and the supporting data behind the oil-supply arithmetic.
podcastUranium Insider — Justin HuhnCited by Haymaker as the "industry authority" on the nuclear build-out — the source of both charts in this Daily (Russia's fuel-cycle share and the EIA generation series), including the count of Russian reactor exports (21 in build-out, 6 planned, 40 GW).
podcastABAC Technologies weekly energy podcast — David GreelyGreely was Jeff Currie's number two on Goldman's commodities team and did the work showing that investment flows, not speculative fervour, were driving commodity open interest. Murti: 'It's a great weekly energy podcast.'
documentBettering Human Lives — Chris Wright / Liberty EnergyThe report Murti credits as one of only two public defences of the energy industry made in 'normal human English' during 2020-23 - a positive case for why the world uses hydrocarbons, against an industry that answered with ESG reports amounting to 'we're not as evil as you think we are.'
documentExhibit 1 — Ratio of Commodity Prices to the S&P 500 (1970–2026) — FactSet / Jefferies (relayed by ZeroHedge)The GSCI Commodity Index divided by the S&P 500 back to 1970. Labelled peaks: ~9.5 (Gulf War), ~8.3 (2008 oil spike and the GFC), ~7.6 (1970s oil embargo); labelled troughs: ~1.5 (Tech Bubble), ~1.3 (Nifty Fifty). The 2020–2026 reading sits near 0.7 — below the dot-com trough and the low of the entire 56-year series.
documentGoehring & Rozencwajg quarterly letter — Q2 2026 (published 31 Aug 2026) — Goehring & Rozencwajg AssociatesThe specific issue behind this interview's arithmetic — the 10 mb/d shut-in, the 6 mb/d refining outage, the working-capital decomposition of global inventory and the 50-vs-500 million-barrel product-inventory gap, 'with charts and tables with all of the figures I'm about to say.' Free on the firm's website.
documentKopernik on the desirability of timber investments — Kopernik Global InvestorsArgues markets extrapolate rather than normalize cyclicals, so timber-exposed companies trade near prices seen fifteen years ago despite years of biological growth, stable demand and monetary expansion. Polomny's cited source for the timberland sleeve.
podcastSuper-Spiked — Arjun Murti / VeritenHis own Substack, now published as video/audio as well as written - about three quarters of posts go out on YouTube and Spotify. Started in late 2022 because, in his telling, almost nobody in the industry was willing to defend it in plain language.
document…with American Characteristics — DoombergThe Doomberg piece published the morning of this interview, walked through on screen — the Pentagon's 35% passive stake in an unnamed Venezuelan businessman's company as the vehicle for hundreds of billions of sovereign-wealth capital, with the US taking ~20% of the barrels at no taxpayer cost. Cited as the worked example of reading a resource deal by its ownership structure rather than its headline.
documentGeomorphic.ai free white papers (tungsten, uranium, phosphate, US critical metals) — Geomorphic.aiFree research reports from Jeff Phillips' private AI prospect-generation company — one commissioned by him on tungsten, plus uranium, phosphate, and a paper on what the US government is doing with critical metals.
bookTungsten in Peace and War, 1918-1946 — Ronald H. LimbaughNamed on-air as the book to read to understand the tungsten market and the wartime-strategic-metal playbook; weaves in Bernard Baruch as a mining entrepreneur-investor of the period. Cited by host Brandon Beylo against Trump's stated 'military economy' pivot: 'they're just going to run this playbook back.'
bookMy Electrician Drives a Porsche — Gianni KovacevicHis 2016 book on copper and the electrification of global energy, written when copper was ~$2/lb.
documentBloomberg Insights — Bloomberg (Jim Wiederhold posts regularly)Wiederhold's public writing on commodity indices and cross-commodity research — including the gold-all-time-high / BCOM rotation study. He notes it needs no Bloomberg terminal access.
documentEIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) — US Energy Information AdministrationMonthly US supply/demand/inventory outlook. Rozencwajg rates EIA data above the IEA's and "largely less editorialized" - the IEA releases a bearish chairman's summary to the press hours before the backing data.
documentGoehring & Rozencwajg quarterly research commentary — Goehring & Rozencwajg AssociatesThe firm's public quarterly natural-resource letter plus interim market updates (the May 2026 quarterly and the interim oil market update are both cited in this episode).
documentIEA base-decline and upstream investment study — International Energy AgencyEstimated the base decline of every existing field and the spend needed to hold global production flat - showing a large gap against the ~$550B/yr actually invested. Rozencwajg argues flat is the wrong target and puts the real need at ~$1.5T/yr for a decade.
videoHow Drill Core Unlocks URANIUM Discoveries | Inside Uranium Exploration — Chris Frostad (Purepoint Uranium Group)7-minute explainer on what a uranium drill program actually produces: why geophysics maps show relative rock-property contrast rather than what is in the ground, why three holes ('three legs of a stool') are needed before the geology is understood, what oriented core preserves, and why a $300-500k-per-hole cost makes a scheduled interpretation pause rational.
documentShallow Water, Deep ValueA research report title Currie cites approvingly as the whole thesis in three words — the offshore shallow-water segment abandoned by capital since COVID, where 1947 Oil & Gas bought reserves at roughly $4 a barrel. "I love that title. It says almost everything you need to know."
talkThe "sweater speech" — televised energy address — President Jimmy Carter (February 1977)Carter on TV in a cardigan with the thermostat turned down, telling Americans there is an energy crisis. Cited by Currie as the canonical policy mistake: "the moral of the story was never admit to the scarcity" — panic struck the next day. Every president since Bush senior has instead used the SPR and the language around it to "create the illusion of abundance," which is why official calm is management, not information.
documentLetter on the coming US natural gas shortage (June 2026) — Matt SmithWritten for a small group of confidants and published in full by AIA with permission: 18 months of bottom-up research across producing basins, pipelines, processing, LNG exports and AI power projects, concluding US gas storage could be drawn at unprecedented rates as early as 2028 and working storage likely exhausted by 2030 — "the fuel everyone thinks is abundant is not."
documentA closer look at what it now costs to mine uranium in Kazakhstan — Ocean Wall Ltd.Cited at length for Kazatomprom's cost trajectory ($10.25/lb 2012 to guided $35-36.50 AISC 2026) and the MET's volume-restraint incentive.
podcastJohn Borshoff on where the uranium pounds will come from — John BorshoffRecommended as "a very worthwhile listen from an industry veteran" on the supply gap behind the WNA's 2040 demand case; the letter names neither the show nor a date — title is descriptive, not quoted.
documentWorld Nuclear Association 2025 "Reference Case" scenario — World Nuclear AssociationHas uranium demand doubling to ~390 million lbs/yr by 2040 — the number Huhn uses to frame "we really do not know where the pounds will come from."
bookCan't Deny It — Doug TerresonFramework for why-upstream / why-supermajors that ConocoPhillips ran; Terreson sits on the Phillips 66 board. [Title as heard in the auto-transcript — verify spelling before relying on it.]
documentWorld Gold Council — Mid-Year Gold Outlook, H2 2026 — World Gold CouncilHalf-year demand/supply outlook: central banks expected to buy 750–850t in 2026 (a top-5 year since 1971), 95% expect reserves to rise, Asia-led investment demand holding through H2.
bookHow the World Really Works — Vaclav SmilPolomny: "people need to read Vaclav Smil" to grasp the hydrocarbon inputs behind modern agriculture — how many barrels of oil / thousands of cubic feet of gas it takes to make the ammonia and urea that drive crop yields, and why feeding 8 billion people depends on them.
documentThe Abundance Illusion — Jeff Currie / CarlyleCurrie's latest Carlyle compass — "that's one that's worth a read right now"; lays out his oil/commodity supply thesis.
documentThe abundance illusion — Jeff CurrieArgues every US administration since Bush Sr. has run on an 'abundance illusion' — draining strategic reserves and talking prices down to mask scarcity rather than build physical capacity (the original energy-security logic of Carter's 'energy transition'). Reads today's record-bearish oil sentiment as the same template repeating.
podcastWhy Uranium Must Go to $120/lb — Guy Keller's ASX Uranium Outlook — LEVRD / Guy Keller (Tribeca)Deep dive on uranium, nuclear energy and the ASX-listed uranium sector: despite a 12-month equity sell-off the supply-demand picture stays strong and prices must move higher to incentivize the next wave of mine development; covers Chinese investment and utility contracting.
documentThe Abundance Illusion — Jeff CurrieArgues the SPR / inventory drawdown masks depletion - inventory has a floor that production doesn't, so once reserves near operational minimums price must rise to ration.
courseRule Classroom — Rule Investment Media~350 hours of free instructional natural-resource-investing video; repeatedly recommended as a learning resource.
bookOil 101 — Morgan DowneyCited for the fact that global oil demand has contracted year-over-year only four times in the last 160 years.
bookCommodity Wars — Nomi PrinsHer forthcoming book (chapter 7 of 10, due to publisher end of year) on the weaponization of supply chains.
talk★ Wood Mackenzie Metals Week copper paper — Wood MackenzieA London Metals Week paper estimating the 10 largest copper miners must invest $250B over 10 years just to maintain current production.
bookOil 101 — Morgan Downey'Wrote the book on oil markets' — Polomny recommends Downey's long post-Hormuz update chapter (permanent Hormuz risk premium, LNG chokepoints, bypass pipelines) to get better informed than most investors.
talkNatural Resources Investment Symposium (Rule Symposium) — Rick RuleHis 30-year-running natural-resource conference in Boca Raton; pre-conference exhibitor interviews posted free.
courseUranium boot camp — Rick RuleAn 8-hour deep-dive teaching investors how to apply geology to uranium deposits; part of a 90-day boot-camp series (copper one upcoming).
bookThe Frackers — Greg ZuckermanThe US shale story (Harold Hamm using dividends to buy his own stock); Cole recommended it to Bill before Smead went big into oil.
podcastHFI Research — HFI ResearchEnergy research service Paulo Macro cites as a go-to for oil-on-water/inventory and gas GDD analysis ('you get what you pay for').
podcastMoney of MineCommodities podcast Paulo Macro appeared on for a detailed copper/uranium/oil discussion (his 2nd appearance).
documentThe High-Tech Strategist — Fred HickeyLong-running newsletter (despite the name, a key precious-metals voice); Hay re-recommends it for serious gold/miner investors — source of the Wesdome (WDOFF) and Newmont (NEM) calls and the trim-into-strength discipline.
videoMicroNuclear molten-salt-reactor process explainer — MicroNuclear / Richard McPhersonShort video explaining MicroNuclear's MSR process, linked in the Haymaker As Host #7 video description.